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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 05 August 13
INDO GOVERNMENT'S DECLARED HBA IN AUGUST '13 FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JANUARY '10
COALspot. com - HBA fell to US$ 76.70 this month, the lowest since January 2010. Indonesian Coal Price Reference fell 6.11% and hitting a 2013 ...
Sunday, 04 August 13
COAL SWAP MARKET HAS LOST DIRECTION; STRUGGLING TO CATCH UP
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average October 2013 delivery slightly down on day, week and month on Friday, 2 A ...
Sunday, 04 August 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT SOFT DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN INDONESIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com : The freight market was fairly steady this week with the BDI recovering towards north since second half of the week with the support o ...
Friday, 02 August 13
DRY BULK MARKET STABILIZES ON RENEWED MARKET ACTIVITY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept its positive footing this week, although it's still a far cry to deem the market situation as a growing one, especiall ...
Friday, 02 August 13
ASIA ACCOUNTS FOR 27.95 PERCENT OF US COAL EXPORTS IN Q1, 2013
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.80 million short tons (mmst) of ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
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