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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 27 July 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY - CAPT.REDDY
COALspot.com : The freight market seemed to soften this week with BDI , Cape and Panamax indices dropped average 5 percent on week.
The BDI was d ...
Thursday, 25 July 13
CAPESIZE : PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC RATES ARE HOLDING STEADY - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Far East market remains quiet even if some Indo coal trip orders were fed in the market at early this week. Prompt ships passing Singapor ...
Thursday, 25 July 13
SUMMER LULL CHIPPING AWAY RECENT GAINS IN DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In what seems to be establishing as a permanent trend, at least for the time being, the dry bulk market kept on retreating yesterday, even if this r ...
Tuesday, 23 July 13
NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORTS CLIMB 17.82% ON WEEK, PORT'S DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,369,865 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 22 July 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. s ...
Monday, 22 July 13
DRY BULK MARKET DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN POSITIVE DRIVE CLAIMS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has seen a significant recovery in recent weeks, leading most ship classes to earnings above their operating expenses, thus brin ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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