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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 28 April 13
PANAMAX FREIGHT COULD BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - This BDI closed slightly lower at 871 points (down by 1.91 pct) mainly due to drop in the Panamax index by almost 10 pct.
Th ...
Saturday, 27 April 13
HANDY : SLIDING ; PANAMAX : POSITIVE ; CAPESIZE : STILL ON ITS KNEES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic markets started sliding with no fresh cargoes seen in the market. The USG-Feast was at USD 18k and Black sea-Feast was at USD 11 ...
Saturday, 27 April 13
2ND CHINA INTERNATIONAL SHALE GAS SUMMIT
Press Release - 2nd China International Shale Gas Summit, 10-13 September 2013 | Chengdu, China
*The largest annual event for the shale gas indus ...
Friday, 26 April 13
LIMA SUMMIT IN JULY TO HIGHLIGHT LATIN AMERICAN MINING POTENTIAL
COALspot.com - Latin American mining industry officials and their private sector counterparts will be gathering in Lima, Peru on July 1-2 for the La ...
Wednesday, 24 April 13
FUTURE US POWER MARKET SHARES OF COAL, NATURAL GAS GENERATORS DEPEND ON RELATIVE FUEL PRICES - EIA
COALspot.com - In recent years, in US, natural gas competed more effectively with coal as a fuel for electricity generation as the cost of operating ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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