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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 03 May 13
SHIP OWNERS ARE INVESTING HEAVILY IN DRY BULK CARRIER NEWBUILDINGS ONCE MORE: IS THERE ANY RATIONALE? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk market remains heavily oversupplied and just as the orderbook of newbuildings had began to shrink, it seems that sh ...
Wednesday, 01 May 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.14 PER CENT MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,997,729 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 29 April 2013, Newca ...
Tuesday, 30 April 13
KATINGAN RIA THERMAL COAL TO START PRODUCTION FROM EARLY 2014
COALspot.com - Realm Resources Ltd. (ASX: RRP) has announced the completion of the Feasibility Study for its 51% owned Katingan Ria thermal co ...
Monday, 29 April 13
FIRST TRADES OF SGX API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP
COALspot.com - The SGX API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap went live for clearing on SGX-DC today with a total volume of 25,000 metric tonnes (25 lots). ...
Sunday, 28 April 13
SUB BIT INDONESIA COAL & CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS STAY POSITIVE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average May 2013 delivery has gained 0.34 percent and CFR South China coal shipment gai ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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