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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 07 May 13
NEWCASTLE PORT'S COAL EXPORTS HOLD STEADY WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,975,160 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 6 May 2013, Newcastl ...
Monday, 06 May 13
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS CONTINUE
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal bench mark price has lost $ 3.23 / MT in May 2013.
The monthly coal pr ...
Sunday, 05 May 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL - MIXED TREND; API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL - POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average June 2013 delivery has gained 0.28 percent and API 8 CFR South China Coal shipment&nb ...
Saturday, 04 May 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA PANAMAX FREIGHT : FLAT TO SOFT - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The demand for iron ore picked up and its pushed up the cape size index by 7.86 pct. Cape index closed at 1,344 points. The BDI ...
Friday, 03 May 13
US PRODUCED 17.9 MILLION SHORT TONS (MMST) OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com - U.S. produced totaled approximately 17.9 million short tons (mmst) in a week (For the week ended April 27, 2013), EIA said in its lat ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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