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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
 The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Rothschild’s proposal to oust the majority of Bumi Plc’s current Board of Directors and replace them with his appointees. The proposal needs a simple majority to pass, said Lucky Ariesandi, CFA, an analyst from PT Kim Eng Securities.
Bakrie group looks to have a clear upper hand
Lucky Ariesandi further said in his analysis, Bakrie & Borneo (BB) has 30% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc. Bukit Mutiara/Recapital, considered to be related to BB, owned a 13.1% stake in Bumi Plc but divested its shares just before the showdown. The new buyers too, however, look closely related to BB. Harry Tanoe (who bought 1.7% of Bumi Plc) recently acquired Bakrie’s infrastructure business and is reported to be bidding for Bakrie’s 51% stake in Visi Media (VIVA IJ) to further cement his grip on Indonesia’s media business. Avenue Capital (7.6%) has a longstanding cordial relationship with Bakrie, and currently owns an 11.2% stake in Bakrieland (ELTY IJ). Argyle Street Management (4.2%) is the only new buyer without a track record of working with the Bakrie family. All in all, it appears that BB will be able to secure atleast 39-40% of the voting rights in the upcoming Bumi plc’s EGM. Note that the buyers of Recapital’s stake in Bumi Plc can cast their votes if registration is completed 48 hours before the meeting.
Rothschild’s mission impossible
Nat Rothschild, through NR Investment, owns 14.8% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc, based on the latest filings provided by Bloomberg. Aside from his own shares, NR claims to have the support of Abu Dhabi Investment (4.2%), Schroder (3.5%), and Standard Life (2.1%). This takes his tally to around 25% of the voting rights. Other large shareholders have not publicly announced how they would cast their vote, including Blackrock (6.2%), St James Master Fund (5.6%), and Taube Hodson (4.2%). We think it is highly unlikely NR can muster enough support to advance his proposal, said Lucky Ariesandi.
What will happen if Rothschild wins the fight?
He further said, OJK, Indonesia’s financial services authority, has announced that it might consider a radical change in the BoD of Bumi Plc a change of ownership, hence triggering a mandatory general offer (GO) for Berau Coal (BRAU IJ). As NR is not actually offering to buy Berau Coal, the general offer will be done at a Berau’s average trading price 90 days prior to the announcement of the takeover. This would imply a minimum GO price of IDR220/share. The authority might even require a GO for Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) although it remains a grey area until now as Bumi Plc controls less than 50% stake in BUMI IJ. If this should happen, the GO price for BUMI IJ should be around IDR650/share.
What will happen if BB wins the fight?
By winning, which translates into all of NR’s proposals failing to obtain majority votes, the board can continue with the separation of the Bakrie Group from Bumi Plc through a share swap of BB’s 23.8% ownership in Bumi Plc (with 30% voting interest) with Bumi Plc’s 10.3% stake in BUMI IJ, plus an additional USD278m in cash payments for Bumi Plc’s remaining 18.9% stake in BUMI IJ. This would not actually be a complete separation, as BB would still own a 25.1% stake in Bumi Plc after the share swap, via suspended voting shares. The future of BB’s remaining investment in the suspended voting shares remains unclear at this stage. But if the share swap goes through as planned, the suspended voting shares should become ordinary voting shares, as the voting interest of the group will fall to less than 30%, according to Lucky Ariesandi.
What is the value assigned to BUMI IJ and BRAU IJ in Bakrie’s proposal?
The value of BUMI IJ’s takeover by BB depends on the share price of Bumi Plc. Using Monday’s closing price of GBP 0.394 and Monday’s exchange rates of IDR 14,980/GBP and IDR 9,685/USD, BUMI IJ would be valued at IDR 1,002/share for the purposes of the takeover. Meanwhile, the proposal to take over 84.7% of Berau for USD 946m translates into an offer of IDR 310/share.
By: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA (this report is subject to KimEng’s disclaimer clause)
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Monday, 11 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.01 PERCENT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,967,761 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 11 February 2013, Newc ...
Sunday, 10 February 13
INDONESIA SUB-BIT SWAPS: "UP" - CFR SOUTH CHINA SWAPS: "DOWN"
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.72 percent W-O-W and CFR South China coal shipme ...
Sunday, 10 February 13
DRY BULK OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE SEEN WANING IN THE COMING MONTHS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
It seems that the tide could be shifting in the dry bulk market, in terms of tonnage oversupply, according to the latest data figures. This could ex ...
Sunday, 10 February 13
HIGHER BUNKER PRICE PUSHES SEA FREIGHTS FIRM - REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market was soft and all at same levels with Chinese year holidays next week.
The BDI was slightly down by 0.27 pct ad ...
Friday, 08 February 13
NORTH P&I CLUB WARNS OF LIQUEFACTION RISK FOR BAUXITE CARGOES
The ‘A’ rated 170 million GT North P&I club has warned shipowners carrying bauxite aluminium ore cargoes that they have the potentia ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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