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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
 The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Rothschild’s proposal to oust the majority of Bumi Plc’s current Board of Directors and replace them with his appointees. The proposal needs a simple majority to pass, said Lucky Ariesandi, CFA, an analyst from PT Kim Eng Securities.
Bakrie group looks to have a clear upper hand
Lucky Ariesandi further said in his analysis, Bakrie & Borneo (BB) has 30% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc. Bukit Mutiara/Recapital, considered to be related to BB, owned a 13.1% stake in Bumi Plc but divested its shares just before the showdown. The new buyers too, however, look closely related to BB. Harry Tanoe (who bought 1.7% of Bumi Plc) recently acquired Bakrie’s infrastructure business and is reported to be bidding for Bakrie’s 51% stake in Visi Media (VIVA IJ) to further cement his grip on Indonesia’s media business. Avenue Capital (7.6%) has a longstanding cordial relationship with Bakrie, and currently owns an 11.2% stake in Bakrieland (ELTY IJ). Argyle Street Management (4.2%) is the only new buyer without a track record of working with the Bakrie family. All in all, it appears that BB will be able to secure atleast 39-40% of the voting rights in the upcoming Bumi plc’s EGM. Note that the buyers of Recapital’s stake in Bumi Plc can cast their votes if registration is completed 48 hours before the meeting.
Rothschild’s mission impossible
Nat Rothschild, through NR Investment, owns 14.8% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc, based on the latest filings provided by Bloomberg. Aside from his own shares, NR claims to have the support of Abu Dhabi Investment (4.2%), Schroder (3.5%), and Standard Life (2.1%). This takes his tally to around 25% of the voting rights. Other large shareholders have not publicly announced how they would cast their vote, including Blackrock (6.2%), St James Master Fund (5.6%), and Taube Hodson (4.2%). We think it is highly unlikely NR can muster enough support to advance his proposal, said Lucky Ariesandi.
What will happen if Rothschild wins the fight?
He further said, OJK, Indonesia’s financial services authority, has announced that it might consider a radical change in the BoD of Bumi Plc a change of ownership, hence triggering a mandatory general offer (GO) for Berau Coal (BRAU IJ). As NR is not actually offering to buy Berau Coal, the general offer will be done at a Berau’s average trading price 90 days prior to the announcement of the takeover. This would imply a minimum GO price of IDR220/share. The authority might even require a GO for Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) although it remains a grey area until now as Bumi Plc controls less than 50% stake in BUMI IJ. If this should happen, the GO price for BUMI IJ should be around IDR650/share.
What will happen if BB wins the fight?
By winning, which translates into all of NR’s proposals failing to obtain majority votes, the board can continue with the separation of the Bakrie Group from Bumi Plc through a share swap of BB’s 23.8% ownership in Bumi Plc (with 30% voting interest) with Bumi Plc’s 10.3% stake in BUMI IJ, plus an additional USD278m in cash payments for Bumi Plc’s remaining 18.9% stake in BUMI IJ. This would not actually be a complete separation, as BB would still own a 25.1% stake in Bumi Plc after the share swap, via suspended voting shares. The future of BB’s remaining investment in the suspended voting shares remains unclear at this stage. But if the share swap goes through as planned, the suspended voting shares should become ordinary voting shares, as the voting interest of the group will fall to less than 30%, according to Lucky Ariesandi.
What is the value assigned to BUMI IJ and BRAU IJ in Bakrie’s proposal?
The value of BUMI IJ’s takeover by BB depends on the share price of Bumi Plc. Using Monday’s closing price of GBP 0.394 and Monday’s exchange rates of IDR 14,980/GBP and IDR 9,685/USD, BUMI IJ would be valued at IDR 1,002/share for the purposes of the takeover. Meanwhile, the proposal to take over 84.7% of Berau for USD 946m translates into an offer of IDR 310/share.
By: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA (this report is subject to KimEng’s disclaimer clause)
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Friday, 15 February 13
SCRAPPING TO RISE AS BULKER OWNERS SUFFER - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Drewry's latest Dry Bulk Forecaster report suggests that cash-strapped shipowners will scrap younger and younger ships this year as the dry bulk ma ...
Thursday, 14 February 13
HANDY: ATLANTIC "STABLE"; PACIFIC "QUIET" - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic remain stable with rates for FH from USG around USD 18k. The Pacific remains quiet due to Chinese New Year holidays. Rates were ...
Thursday, 14 February 13
BIMCO FORECASTS MOSTLY HIGHER DRY BULK RATES FOR THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Higher steel demand is expected to keep dry bulk rates elevated during the next six weeks, according to the latest BIMCO forecast. The Organization ...
Wednesday, 13 February 13
6TH ANNUAL CBM CONFERENCE
The 6th Annual CBM conference which will be held in Singapore on 18-21 June 201 offers comprehensive insights into leading CBM projects in the Asia- ...
Tuesday, 12 February 13
GOVERNMENT DECLARED INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL PRICE INCHES UP IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared bench mark price for coal has moved upwards in February 2013.
The monthly coal refere ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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