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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
 The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Rothschild’s proposal to oust the majority of Bumi Plc’s current Board of Directors and replace them with his appointees. The proposal needs a simple majority to pass, said Lucky Ariesandi, CFA, an analyst from PT Kim Eng Securities.
Bakrie group looks to have a clear upper hand
Lucky Ariesandi further said in his analysis, Bakrie & Borneo (BB) has 30% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc. Bukit Mutiara/Recapital, considered to be related to BB, owned a 13.1% stake in Bumi Plc but divested its shares just before the showdown. The new buyers too, however, look closely related to BB. Harry Tanoe (who bought 1.7% of Bumi Plc) recently acquired Bakrie’s infrastructure business and is reported to be bidding for Bakrie’s 51% stake in Visi Media (VIVA IJ) to further cement his grip on Indonesia’s media business. Avenue Capital (7.6%) has a longstanding cordial relationship with Bakrie, and currently owns an 11.2% stake in Bakrieland (ELTY IJ). Argyle Street Management (4.2%) is the only new buyer without a track record of working with the Bakrie family. All in all, it appears that BB will be able to secure atleast 39-40% of the voting rights in the upcoming Bumi plc’s EGM. Note that the buyers of Recapital’s stake in Bumi Plc can cast their votes if registration is completed 48 hours before the meeting.
Rothschild’s mission impossible
Nat Rothschild, through NR Investment, owns 14.8% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc, based on the latest filings provided by Bloomberg. Aside from his own shares, NR claims to have the support of Abu Dhabi Investment (4.2%), Schroder (3.5%), and Standard Life (2.1%). This takes his tally to around 25% of the voting rights. Other large shareholders have not publicly announced how they would cast their vote, including Blackrock (6.2%), St James Master Fund (5.6%), and Taube Hodson (4.2%). We think it is highly unlikely NR can muster enough support to advance his proposal, said Lucky Ariesandi.
What will happen if Rothschild wins the fight?
He further said, OJK, Indonesia’s financial services authority, has announced that it might consider a radical change in the BoD of Bumi Plc a change of ownership, hence triggering a mandatory general offer (GO) for Berau Coal (BRAU IJ). As NR is not actually offering to buy Berau Coal, the general offer will be done at a Berau’s average trading price 90 days prior to the announcement of the takeover. This would imply a minimum GO price of IDR220/share. The authority might even require a GO for Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) although it remains a grey area until now as Bumi Plc controls less than 50% stake in BUMI IJ. If this should happen, the GO price for BUMI IJ should be around IDR650/share.
What will happen if BB wins the fight?
By winning, which translates into all of NR’s proposals failing to obtain majority votes, the board can continue with the separation of the Bakrie Group from Bumi Plc through a share swap of BB’s 23.8% ownership in Bumi Plc (with 30% voting interest) with Bumi Plc’s 10.3% stake in BUMI IJ, plus an additional USD278m in cash payments for Bumi Plc’s remaining 18.9% stake in BUMI IJ. This would not actually be a complete separation, as BB would still own a 25.1% stake in Bumi Plc after the share swap, via suspended voting shares. The future of BB’s remaining investment in the suspended voting shares remains unclear at this stage. But if the share swap goes through as planned, the suspended voting shares should become ordinary voting shares, as the voting interest of the group will fall to less than 30%, according to Lucky Ariesandi.
What is the value assigned to BUMI IJ and BRAU IJ in Bakrie’s proposal?
The value of BUMI IJ’s takeover by BB depends on the share price of Bumi Plc. Using Monday’s closing price of GBP 0.394 and Monday’s exchange rates of IDR 14,980/GBP and IDR 9,685/USD, BUMI IJ would be valued at IDR 1,002/share for the purposes of the takeover. Meanwhile, the proposal to take over 84.7% of Berau for USD 946m translates into an offer of IDR 310/share.
By: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA (this report is subject to KimEng’s disclaimer clause)
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Thursday, 21 February 13
SPRING COAL PROCUREMENT 2013 IS ABOUT TO TAKE PLACE
In 2012, “Steady Growth” had set the keynote for China’s economic development. Guided by the principle of progressing steadily, do ...
Tuesday, 19 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 38.65 PERCENT LESS COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 1,820,559 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 18 February 2013, Newc ...
Monday, 18 February 13
78.75 MILLION TONS OF COAL RESERVES ARE NEWLY PROVEN IN WUGANG HUNAN PROVINCE
COALspot.com - Recently, Wugang City, known as the CHINA hundred key coal producing cities, achieved new breakthroughs in coal exploration: deep coa ...
Sunday, 17 February 13
STEEL DEMAND WILL HELP TO PUSH UP FREIGHT RATES - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market has been fairly steady week ended 15 February 2013.
The BDI was slightly up by 0.67 pct closing at 753 points ...
Friday, 15 February 13
2ND ANNUAL INDONESIA MINING 2013 CONFERENCE
Bringing Indonesia's Mining Stakeholders Together Towards Improving Mining Investment Climate & Operations
Following the success of th ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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