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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 23 March 13
WORLD COAL TRADE FIRST PASSES 1 BILLION TONS IN 2012 - VEREIN DER KOHLENIMPORTEURE E.V
Press Release: Hard coal imports to Germany on the previous year's level in spite of regenerative energies. Imports for power plants at an all-time ...
Thursday, 21 March 13
HANDY : RBCT ROUNDS FIXED AT $ 9000 + 300K BB - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic market remains firm with cargoes seen to support healthy rates as per last week. The USG-Feast was at USD 25k and Black Sea-Feas ...
Wednesday, 20 March 13
NTPC TO IMPORT SEVEN MILLION TONS COAL FOR FOUR MONTHS
COALspot.com : NTPC Limited (formerly National Thermal Power Corporation) is the largest Indian state-owned electric utilities company has awarded&n ...
Tuesday, 19 March 13
CHINA GAS PRICE REFORMS AND APAC GAS PRICING - FITCH STREET VIEW
Fitch Ratings says pricing reform in the Chinese gas sector is unlikely to materially impact gas distributors' margins, and low gas prices in the U ...
Tuesday, 19 March 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FALL BY 4.27 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,365,561 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 18 March 2013, Newcast ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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