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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 19 March 13
SHIP PRICES COULD BE CLOSING IN TO REACH THEIR BOTTOM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
One of the latest developments in shipping asset prices has been the reluctance from shipyards to further reduce their price expectations to higher ...
Sunday, 17 March 13
A WEAK WEEK FOR SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 2.11 percent and CFR South China coal shipment ...
Sunday, 17 March 13
COAL FREIGHT RATES STEADY ON HIGHER DEMAND - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - This freight market continued to remain firm in all segments.
The BDI was up by 5.81 pct closing at 892 points. Cape index was up ...
Friday, 15 March 13
CHEAP SHIP VALUATIONS DON'T NECESSARILY MEAN ATTRACTIVE SAYS VESSELS VALUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With ship prices plunging by double-digits in the past few years, many ship owners are pondering their next moves in a market often described as att ...
Thursday, 14 March 13
SUPRAMAX : INDO - INDIA TRIP RATE IS AROUND $10,000; SOUTH CHINA $9500 - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Indian market is still quiet in respect of export of iron ore. WC India market has improved with a few stems out of the MEG, WC India opening ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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