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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 31 March 13
COAL FREIGHTS ARE IN FLAT TO WEAK TREND - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market after several weeks of firming up seemed to lose steam and this week all the indices were down except for handy s ...
Friday, 29 March 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: UP 0.55 % WOW; CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL CONTRACT: UP 0.23 % WOW
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.55 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Thursday, 28 March 13
SHIP OWNERS KEEN ON ACQUIRING SECOND HAND TONNAGE, AS WELL AS NEW BUILDINGS IN CONVENTIONAL SEGMENTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The recent rally of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), coupled with renewed optimism, at least in some parts of the wet market, have prompted many ship own ...
Wednesday, 27 March 13
PTBA HAS CONCLUDED US$ 16.14 BILLION WORTH OF COAL SALES AND PURCHASE AGREEMENT WITH PLN
COALspot.com - PT. Bukit Asam, a 32 years old Indonesian state owned coal miner has signed a coal sales and purchase agreement with PT PLN, (a state ...
Wednesday, 27 March 13
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE REACHES HIGHEST LEVEL FOR TWO YEARS - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry recovered to their highest level for two years in the three months ended February 2013, according ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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