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Monday, 24 December 12
BUNKER PRICES TO CONTINUE RISING, ALBEIT IN A SLOWER MODE, DURING THE NEXT FEW YEARS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEW
 In a recent report, US-based consulting firm Mcquilling Services attempted to forecast the course of bunker prices during the next few years, as this factor is among the most important ones when it comes to ship owning operating costs. According to the company's projection, 2013 average bunker prices are expected to reach $690 per ton, while by 2017, bunker costs are forecast to average $760 per ton. During 2012, the basket of bunker prices reached an all-time high of almost $750 per ton in early March. "This was influenced by an upward spike in crude oil prices combined with robust demand for power generation from various countries. Although prices have since subsided, bunker prices are anticipated to rise in the coming years. This increase will be in line with higher crude oil prices, but also tighter supplies due to secondary capacity additions and changes to the international crude slate. Tanker earnings will continue to be pressured, which will encourage owners to explore methods to boost fuel efficiency" Mcquilling Services said.
It continued by explaining its methodology noting that "in our annual Tanker Market Outlook, McQuilling Services provides a bunker price forecast using the correlation between Dated Brent and the average bunker price. Dated Brent provides a more accurate gauge of international crude oil prices as it is not subject to the local logistical issues that affect the US benchmark WTI and it is considered the global oil price benchmark. In previous editions of the Tanker Market Outlook, we noted the correlation between Dated Brent and international bunker prices has shifted upwards as tighter specifications and refinery upgrades are reducing supplies. Between 1994 and 2007, the slope remained constant but started to steepen in 2008. This trend has continued into this year’s forecasting cycle.
The report added that "in our 2012 Tanker Market Outlook, we forecast that Dated Brent would average US $105 per barrel and bunker prices US $650 per ton. Year-to-date Dated Brent has been roughly US $111 per barrel or 3% above our forecast while bunkers averaged US $675 per ton, about 4% higher than projected. Going forward we see limited upward support for international crude oil prices as the global economy is expected to remain under pressure while supplies should remain relatively ample.
Global crude production should remain supported by the expectation that output in North America will increase throughout the forecast period. Saudi Arabia will continue to be the most influential swing supplier of OPEC nations while Russian production should also continue to hover around 10 million b/d. Political risks that could result in reduced production, especially in the Middle East and North Africa will remain present. Demand growth from non-OECD economies will stay healthy throughout the forecast period which will help absorb displaced barrels, in particular from the Caribbean, as a result of rising North American crude oil production. This will support ton-mile demand in particular for the larger tanker classes" it said.
Mcquilling Serviced concluded its argument by saying that "this year’s medium term forecast anticipates that bunker prices will rise slowly over the next three years. This range bound activity will be influenced by a rising share of natural gas consumption in both industrialized and developing nations that will provide some balance to market fundamentals. The rise in the latter part of the forecast period is the result of tighter bunker fuel specifications combined with the growth in sophistication of the global downstream industry".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mai ...
Wednesday, 02 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.61 PERCENT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,533,183 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 31 December 2012, Newc ...
Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six ...
Monday, 31 December 12
KOSEP IS LOOKING FOR 280K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR APRIL - JUNE 2013
COALspot.com : South Korean state-owned utility Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOSEP), has issued an new tender for prompt supply of 280,00 ...
Monday, 31 December 12
VALE CELEBRATES ARRIVAL OF "VALE SOHAR" BULK CARRIER TO SULTANATE WITH MEMBERS OF COMMUNITY
'Vale Sohar', one of the largest bulk carriers in the world, was welcomed to Oman by members of the North Al Batinah community headed by H.E. Shei ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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