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Monday, 24 December 12
BUNKER PRICES TO CONTINUE RISING, ALBEIT IN A SLOWER MODE, DURING THE NEXT FEW YEARS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEW
 In a recent report, US-based consulting firm Mcquilling Services attempted to forecast the course of bunker prices during the next few years, as this factor is among the most important ones when it comes to ship owning operating costs. According to the company's projection, 2013 average bunker prices are expected to reach $690 per ton, while by 2017, bunker costs are forecast to average $760 per ton. During 2012, the basket of bunker prices reached an all-time high of almost $750 per ton in early March. "This was influenced by an upward spike in crude oil prices combined with robust demand for power generation from various countries. Although prices have since subsided, bunker prices are anticipated to rise in the coming years. This increase will be in line with higher crude oil prices, but also tighter supplies due to secondary capacity additions and changes to the international crude slate. Tanker earnings will continue to be pressured, which will encourage owners to explore methods to boost fuel efficiency" Mcquilling Services said.
It continued by explaining its methodology noting that "in our annual Tanker Market Outlook, McQuilling Services provides a bunker price forecast using the correlation between Dated Brent and the average bunker price. Dated Brent provides a more accurate gauge of international crude oil prices as it is not subject to the local logistical issues that affect the US benchmark WTI and it is considered the global oil price benchmark. In previous editions of the Tanker Market Outlook, we noted the correlation between Dated Brent and international bunker prices has shifted upwards as tighter specifications and refinery upgrades are reducing supplies. Between 1994 and 2007, the slope remained constant but started to steepen in 2008. This trend has continued into this year’s forecasting cycle.
The report added that "in our 2012 Tanker Market Outlook, we forecast that Dated Brent would average US $105 per barrel and bunker prices US $650 per ton. Year-to-date Dated Brent has been roughly US $111 per barrel or 3% above our forecast while bunkers averaged US $675 per ton, about 4% higher than projected. Going forward we see limited upward support for international crude oil prices as the global economy is expected to remain under pressure while supplies should remain relatively ample.
Global crude production should remain supported by the expectation that output in North America will increase throughout the forecast period. Saudi Arabia will continue to be the most influential swing supplier of OPEC nations while Russian production should also continue to hover around 10 million b/d. Political risks that could result in reduced production, especially in the Middle East and North Africa will remain present. Demand growth from non-OECD economies will stay healthy throughout the forecast period which will help absorb displaced barrels, in particular from the Caribbean, as a result of rising North American crude oil production. This will support ton-mile demand in particular for the larger tanker classes" it said.
Mcquilling Serviced concluded its argument by saying that "this year’s medium term forecast anticipates that bunker prices will rise slowly over the next three years. This range bound activity will be influenced by a rising share of natural gas consumption in both industrialized and developing nations that will provide some balance to market fundamentals. The rise in the latter part of the forecast period is the result of tighter bunker fuel specifications combined with the growth in sophistication of the global downstream industry".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 10 January 13
DRY BULK PANAMAX MARKET HEAVILY OVERSUPPLIED, UNLIKELY TO FIND SUPPORT IN 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite positive indication for a significant surge of dry bulk demand this year, the oversupply problems of the market, will continue to weigh heav ...
Tuesday, 08 January 13
HOLIDAY ACTIVITY SCARCE IN THE MARKET OF SECOND HAND VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although the market for second hand vessel purchasing was quite lull during the Holiday period, as is usually the case, the first days of the New Ye ...
Tuesday, 08 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 3.197 MILLION MT OF COAL W/E 7 JANUARY 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,197,580 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 7 January 2013, Newcas ...
Sunday, 06 January 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL: 2014 DELIVERY CLOSED US$ 6.80 HIGHER THAN Q1 '13 PRICE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.37 percent WoW and CFR South China coal sh ...
Sunday, 06 January 13
COAL BOOM: WAKE-UP CALL FOR INDIA & INDONESIA! - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Coal Boom : Scenario, Now & later!
Coal has been the dominant fuel for power generating plants in developed countries since th ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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