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Monday, 24 December 12
BUNKER PRICES TO CONTINUE RISING, ALBEIT IN A SLOWER MODE, DURING THE NEXT FEW YEARS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEW
 In a recent report, US-based consulting firm Mcquilling Services attempted to forecast the course of bunker prices during the next few years, as this factor is among the most important ones when it comes to ship owning operating costs. According to the company's projection, 2013 average bunker prices are expected to reach $690 per ton, while by 2017, bunker costs are forecast to average $760 per ton. During 2012, the basket of bunker prices reached an all-time high of almost $750 per ton in early March. "This was influenced by an upward spike in crude oil prices combined with robust demand for power generation from various countries. Although prices have since subsided, bunker prices are anticipated to rise in the coming years. This increase will be in line with higher crude oil prices, but also tighter supplies due to secondary capacity additions and changes to the international crude slate. Tanker earnings will continue to be pressured, which will encourage owners to explore methods to boost fuel efficiency" Mcquilling Services said.
It continued by explaining its methodology noting that "in our annual Tanker Market Outlook, McQuilling Services provides a bunker price forecast using the correlation between Dated Brent and the average bunker price. Dated Brent provides a more accurate gauge of international crude oil prices as it is not subject to the local logistical issues that affect the US benchmark WTI and it is considered the global oil price benchmark. In previous editions of the Tanker Market Outlook, we noted the correlation between Dated Brent and international bunker prices has shifted upwards as tighter specifications and refinery upgrades are reducing supplies. Between 1994 and 2007, the slope remained constant but started to steepen in 2008. This trend has continued into this year’s forecasting cycle.
The report added that "in our 2012 Tanker Market Outlook, we forecast that Dated Brent would average US $105 per barrel and bunker prices US $650 per ton. Year-to-date Dated Brent has been roughly US $111 per barrel or 3% above our forecast while bunkers averaged US $675 per ton, about 4% higher than projected. Going forward we see limited upward support for international crude oil prices as the global economy is expected to remain under pressure while supplies should remain relatively ample.
Global crude production should remain supported by the expectation that output in North America will increase throughout the forecast period. Saudi Arabia will continue to be the most influential swing supplier of OPEC nations while Russian production should also continue to hover around 10 million b/d. Political risks that could result in reduced production, especially in the Middle East and North Africa will remain present. Demand growth from non-OECD economies will stay healthy throughout the forecast period which will help absorb displaced barrels, in particular from the Caribbean, as a result of rising North American crude oil production. This will support ton-mile demand in particular for the larger tanker classes" it said.
Mcquilling Serviced concluded its argument by saying that "this year’s medium term forecast anticipates that bunker prices will rise slowly over the next three years. This range bound activity will be influenced by a rising share of natural gas consumption in both industrialized and developing nations that will provide some balance to market fundamentals. The rise in the latter part of the forecast period is the result of tighter bunker fuel specifications combined with the growth in sophistication of the global downstream industry".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 06 January 13
FREIGHT MARKET REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY - VISTAAR
WISH YOU ALL HAPPY NEW YEAR
COALspot.com - The freight market remained fairly steady in spite of Christmas / New Year Holidays. The BDI was almos ...
Saturday, 05 January 13
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2012 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
Global Economy: Things will go up from here
The global economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace than previous years. The slower economic ...
Friday, 04 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR DIRECTION IN FIRST TRADING DAYS OF THE NEW YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market is actively looking for its footing at the start of the New Year, as charters have been scarce, as is usually the case during th ...
Thursday, 03 January 13
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS CLOSED US$ 6.86 HIGHER FOR 2014 DELIVERY
COALspot.com - Swaps prices were changed positively for thermal coal for loading in the first quarter from Indonesia, according to SGX AsiaClear OTC ...
Thursday, 03 January 13
SUPRMAX FREIGHT RATE FROM RED SEA / INDIA IS AROUND MID TEENS - FEARNLEYS
Fearnleys in its weekly report said that, Indian market was very quiet in respect of export of iron ore. For Indo-India trip Supra rate was hovering ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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