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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 16 September 12
THE FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA EXPECTED TO BE STEADY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was mixed with most indices closing positive except for the Panamax index.
The main sentiment seems to be ...
Saturday, 15 September 12
FINANCE MINISTRY OPPOSES TAX INCENTIVE PLAN FOR COAL MINERS - JP
The Jakarta Post reported that, the Finance Ministry has turned down the idea of providing a fiscal incentive to the country’s coal mining ind ...
Friday, 14 September 12
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKS TOWARDS CHINA FOR SOME POSITIVE NEWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the dry bulk market freight rates submerged underwater for a large part of the year, dry bulk owners are looking for some positive enhancement ...
Friday, 14 September 12
GOVT OFFERS CONDITIONAL TAX HOLIDAY TO AILING COAL MINERS - JP
The Jakarta Post, one of the leading English news paper in Indonesia reported that, acknowledging difficulties encountered by coal miners due to a p ...
Thursday, 13 September 12
PANAMAX: THE NEGATIVE TREND, POOR SENTIMENT CONTINUES - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Lack of cargoes and a growing list of available ships is causing rates to slip for all Atlantic trades.
The only trade keeping somewhat s ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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