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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 13 September 12
FUEL EFFICIENT SHIPS MAY BE MORE EXPENSIVE, BUT THEY MAKE FINANCIAL SENSE SAYS ANALYSIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The latest trend in shipbuilding is the so called "Eco" ship, i.e. ships which offer much better fuel consumption and are more cost-effect ...
Wednesday, 12 September 12
INDIAS COALGATE: TIME FOR A ROOT CANAL
A recent report from India’s Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) pertaining to the allocation of coal blocks has created a political storm i ...
Tuesday, 11 September 12
CLOUDY AND POLICY RISK INDONESIAN COAL INDUSTRY
COALspot.com - Bahana Securities in its latest coal outlook, commented on the Indonesian coal market, with economic slowdown in the four largest coa ...
Tuesday, 11 September 12
SHIP OWNERS KEEN ON SECOND HAND VESSEL PURCHASES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With most ship owners back from their summer rest, things are starting to pick up again in the second hand vessel market, with more and more deals b ...
Monday, 10 September 12
TNPL, AN INDIAN PAPER MAKER IS SEEKING FOR 300K MT OF IMPORTED NON-COKING COAL
COALspot.com - Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers Ltd. , an Indian paper maker, is seeking 300,000 metric tons ± 5% (In 6 Shipments about 50,0 ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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