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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 23 September 12
INDIA IMPORTED 11.40 PERCENT MORE INDONESIAN COAL IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter, shipped 26,451,565* tons of coal in August 2012, compared to 27.88* mill ...
Saturday, 22 September 12
SOFT BUNKER PRICES KEEP INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHTS STABLE - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market overall remained buoyant with all indices up except for Panamax index. The main effect seems to be increased shipm ...
Friday, 21 September 12
SHIP BREAKING ACTIVITY REACHES NEW RECORDS, AS ALREADY 2012 LEVELS HAVE SURPASSED THE WHOLE OF 2011 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The vast oversupply of vessels, most notably in the dry bulk shipping sector, has forced ship owners to intensify their efforts towards recycling th ...
Thursday, 20 September 12
SUPRAMAX : INDO-INDIA ROUNDS WERE AROUND USD 12K - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Not a bad week for Supramax tonnage, if we compare Supramax developments to the bigger size tonnage. The rates have basically remained unchan ...
Thursday, 20 September 12
DRY BULK INCHES FORWARD AFTER WEEKS OF BELOW PAR PERFORMANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has started to revive from its ashed, as the past couple of days, traders have reported an increased activity from China, result ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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