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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 15 October 12
IT'S STRICTLY COME CHARTERING - CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES
The charter market is a bit of a dance between ship owner and charterer: one leader, one follower; one step, two steps, turn... The dance is symbiot ...
Sunday, 14 October 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL AND CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS: SOFT
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for December 2012 delivery lost 0.329 percent w- w but gained 0.248 percent d-d on Friday, 12 Oct ...
Sunday, 14 October 12
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT STEADY: PANAMAX FREIGHTS FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The shipping market saw some hectic activity in the Cape and panamax sector and quite a lot of fixtures reported.
The BDI was up b ...
Friday, 12 October 12
HOW REAL IS THE THREAT OF PIRACY? - BIMCO
The threat of modern piracy remains serious, regardless of its seasonal variations and the fact that it is chiefly confined to the Indian Ocean, Gul ...
Friday, 12 October 12
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES OCCUR IN THE SECOND HAND VESSEL MARKETS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Although 2012 has by now evolved into one of the most challenging years for global shipping industry, ship owners are scouting the second hand ship ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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