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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 09 October 12
REALM RESOURCES RECOMMENCES DRILLING AT KATINGAN RIA COAL PROJECT
COALspot.com : Realm Resources Ltd. (ASX) has announced that it has commenced work on the phase three technical programme at its Katingan Project in ...
Sunday, 07 October 12
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED HBA FELL AGAIN IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal reference price has lost US$ 0.17 per MT M-M.
The monthly coal referen ...
Saturday, 06 October 12
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FOR DECEMBER'13 DELIVERY GAINED 1.3 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for December 2012 delivery gained 0.098 percent and 0.164 percent W-W and D-D respectively o ...
Saturday, 06 October 12
FREIGHT MARKET IS LIKELY TO PICK AFTER THE HOLIDAYS IN CHINA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market appeared to be seeing some increase BDI up by 14.23 pct closing at 875 points. The Cape and Panamax index also saw ...
Thursday, 04 October 12
CAPESIZE : IN SPITE OF THE HOLIDAYS IN CHINA, RATES ARE CLIMBING UP - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Continent to east Med were around USD 13k and Black ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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