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Wednesday, 12 December 12
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES TO RANGE BETWEEN $9,000 - 16,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted yesterday, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook on the dry bulk market, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
opportunities as higher gas production, followed by lower gas prices, turned the tables in the domestic US market. The production of gas, including shale gas, has stayed high and prices low in 2012, opening up for strong US coal exports in 2012. Ninety-eight million tons of coal was exported during the first nine months of 2012, making annual exports head for an all-time high, surpassing the highs of 1981.
Will this venture stay strong? It’s unlikely, if you ask the US Energy Information Agency, who predict US coal exports will decline in 2013 but remain above 100 million tons for the third straight year.
The case is this: as long as US coal exports go to Europe as a substitute for Australian exports, the lower ton/-mile represents a bad bargain for shipping. But if US exports are heading for the Asian markets, it may become a positive story for the dry bulk market" BIMCO noted.
the US and relatively high in Europe, leaving demand for thermal coal low in US domestic markets but higher in Europe, as coal is the preferred fossil fuel for electricity generation in Europe. Finally, a supply disruption in a major export country may increase US exports. The steel sector, and thus also the Capesize sector, has enjoyed some tail-wind in recent months from China’s proactive approach to seeking higher growth. The September stimulus package immediately affected iron ore prices and Chinese imports positively. As Indian exports to China experienced new lows in Aug./Sept./Oct., the imports had to come from Brazil (longer distance as compared to Indian exports) or Australia (shorter distance). Strong Brazilian exports meant that the dry bulk market saw a solid upside from this surge in demand.
US wheat exports in 2012 have been weak all year. Export volumes during the “peak season” months of August and September were particularly disappointing. The shortfall of an accumulated 23% of the total wheat exports as compared to same period last year highlights the fact that many owners experienced a fierce fight for too few cargoes.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry now expects the drought to cause a drop in harvesting this year as high as 25% compared to the 2011 harvest. Russia, a huge exporter of mainly wheat, said total grain exports were down by 17% compared to last season. The shortfall in seaborne grain exports from both the US and Russia has further and negatively impacted the shipping markets" BIMCO's report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 23 October 12
INDONESIA SETS DMO FOR NEXT YEAR
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared the quantity of coal to be supplied to domestic market in 2013 recently under DMO regulation. ...
Sunday, 21 October 12
BUMA HAS PRODUCED 25.0 MILLION TONS OF COAL YEAR TO DATE
COALspot.com - PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has removed 33.2 million bcm* (+5.5% YoY) of Overburden in September 2012 totaled while coal produc ...
Saturday, 20 October 12
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT EXPECTED TO BE FLAT - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The shipping market continued to be quite active with quite lot of cargoes fixed for in the cape and panamax sector.
The BDI was ...
Thursday, 18 October 12
INDO-INDIA, LARGE ECO SUPRA FIXED AT USD 11000 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Cont to East Med were around USD 14k and Black Sea ...
Tuesday, 16 October 12
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES COULD IMPROVE ON CHINESE STIMULUS AND WINTER CARGO DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
BIMCO has given out its forecast for the next six weeks, in terms of freight rates for dry bulk carriers. According to them, Capesize TC Average rat ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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