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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Friday, 18 May 12
KOREA EAST WEST POWER LOOKING FOR TOTAL 2.6 MILLION TONS OF 4600 NAR COAL AT FIXED PRICE FOR 5 YEARS
COALspot.com - Korea East West Power Co., Ltd is inviting bids to supply of 520,000 Metric Tons (per annum) of minimum 4,600 kcal/kg coal of N ...
Friday, 18 May 12
NICKEL ORE CARGOES ARE NOT SEEN IN MARKET ANYMORE DUE TO ON-GOING INDONESIAN BAN - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The market remained variable.
Fronthaul voyages both from Baltic and Black Sea paid over USD 18k/day. From USG to Cont tonnage would get ...
Thursday, 17 May 12
COAL MINERS OPPOSE EXPORT TAX, SUGGEST OUTPUT QUOTA - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, coal miners have suggested that the government apply a production quota instead of implementing an export tax in ord ...
Thursday, 17 May 12
DRY BULK MARKET STILL LOOKING FOR NEW DIRECTION - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept on moving sideways during this week, with the mixed performance across all segments. Yesterday, the industry’s be ...
Tuesday, 15 May 12
POTENTIAL BOOM OF CHINAS COAL IMPORTS COULD PROVIDE FURTHER SUPPORT TO DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has been moving sideways during the past week with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) losing 0.53% on th ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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