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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Monday, 07 May 12
INDONESIAN HBA FALL AGAIN IN MAY 2012
COALspot.com - Indonesian HBA fall again to lowest level since January 2011 in May 2012. The monthly coal reference price for coal sales in Ma ...
Sunday, 06 May 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL & CFR SOUTH CHINA SWAPS SLIGHTLY DROP THIS WEEK
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for June deliveries slightly dropped this week.
According ...
Sunday, 06 May 12
S7 & S8 ROUTES LIKELY TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com - The BDI remained flat this week and was up just by 1 point closing at 1,157 points.
The cape size index was up by 5.14 pct closing ...
Sunday, 06 May 12
EXPORT DUTY ON MINERAL FINALLY TO BECOME EFFECTIVE NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com - Mineral ore exporters of Indonesia ( only IUP holders) are required to obtain recommendation letter from the energy and mineral ...
Friday, 04 May 12
DEMOLITION KEY FOR DRY BULK MARKET RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The overflow of newbuilding vessels which “spilled over” into 2012 from 2011 brought the dry bulk market to a near collapse level at the ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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