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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
 COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US Coal companies, since Q1, 20122, have shifted their coal sales from domestic to overseas, helped by low transportation cost as reflected by the low Baltic Dry Index. US exports in 2011 grew significantly to 118.2 m tons (+31.3% y-y) with Europe (50.3%) and Asia (25.7%) as major destinations.
With the Euro zone slowing, more and more US coal, most of which are metallurgical coal, are finding their way to Asia, specifically Japan (11% of Indonesia’s 2011 total coal exports goes to Japan) and China (33%), Bahana said in its report.
Thermal coal prices: Heading further down
The coal inventories at key power plants in China remain high, increasing by 5.4 m tons from end April to 88.9m tons on 20 May, sufficient to generate power plants in the next 26 days (normally 15-17 days).
In China’s Qinhuangdao, the world’s largest coal port by capacity (9m tones), have exceeded levels, the first time since late 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. At that time, thermal coal prices was dropped sharply. Last week, Qinhuangdao’s inventory reached 8.2m tones, up 1.1m tones in just 10 days, suggesting lack of demand.
It is clear that thermal coal prices have only one way to go: Down.
Bahana was also reduced its coal price assumptions by 15% - 38% for the period 2012 - 2014 despite yesterday’s Newcastle average coal price y-y drops nearly 15%, reflecting about 10% fall to USD 107.6 from its recent peak of USD 118.9/ton. However the current coal prices, remaining much higher than the gas prices.
As coal prices are below USD 90/ton in June 2012, the first time since August 2010, Bahana has reduced its 2012 coal benchmark price assumption by 15% to USD 97/ton (2H 12 average: USD88/ton; Current: USD89/ton) and by 29% to USD85/ton in 2013, before falling further to USD80/ton in 2014, in line with the expected fixing of China’s railway problem, which has affected imported coal usage, including Indonesia.
As a result of lower coal prices, Bahana has downgraded coal companies’ 2012 earnings by 6% - 40%, translating to lower target prices (TPs) within their coverage.
About Bahana Securities
PT. Bahana Securities was established in 1993 and 100% of its shares are owned by Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT. Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia and member of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Since its establishment up to this date BAHANA Securities strives and works hard to introduce innovation, contribution, committment to play an important role in the development of Indonesian stock exchange development.
Today BAHANA Securities provides numerous innovative services in the investment banking, stock exchange and bonds. With a reliable research ability, an efficient back office, effective IT implementation, BAHANA Securities rises to the challenges as a leading securites company in Indonesia.
Supported by trade transactions that are consistently ranked as the three biggest nasional stockbroker agency with the highest value, coupled with incisive market analysis, we were awarded "The Best Investment Bank", "The Best Equity House", and "The Best Broker" from The Assets, etc
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Sunday, 27 May 12
THE FREIGHT MARKET FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA WAS WEAK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to fall for the fourth straight week and the BDI fell by 9.38 pct this week closing at 1,034 points.
The Cape Si ...
Sunday, 27 May 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS HEADING TO SOUTH DIRECTION
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for July deliveries have dropped this week by 5.43 percent an ...
Saturday, 26 May 12
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS LOOKING TO CUT BACK ON TONNAGE SUPPLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The oversupply of dry bulk carriers has been the most prominent problem in the market today, pushing down rates and ‘strangling’ profita ...
Thursday, 24 May 12
DRY BULK MARKET RETREATS ON LACK OF CHINA DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market retreated yesterday on the back of lower Chinese demand for commodities such as coal and iron ore, typically hauled by dry bulk ...
Tuesday, 22 May 12
NEW ONE-YEAR TIME CHARTERS FOR TWO VESSELS OF EXCEL MARITIME CARRIERS LTD.
Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. (NYSE: EXM), an owner and operator of dry bulk carriers and an international provider of worldwide seaborne transportat ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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