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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 31 January 12
THERE ARE MANY GOOD REASONS FOR COAL IN GERMANY - DR CIESLIK
COALspot.com - "The year 2011 was again marked by many changes on the markets and energy policies, at times in line with expectations, but at o ...
Tuesday, 31 January 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS FALLING FOR WORST MONTH IN YEARS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market didn't manage to put a halt in its downfall, with the industry's benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), posting yet another fa ...
Monday, 30 January 12
CHINA'S HUNGER FOR COAL LEAVES DENT IN PENNSYLVANIA'S SUPPLY - THOMAS LESKIN
With the price of heating oil on the rise, one of Pennsylvania's greatest natural resources - coal - is in high demand, and not just locally.
Et ...
Saturday, 28 January 12
WILL FREIGHT MARKET STABILIZE FROM NEXT WEEK?
COALspot.com - The markets continued to soften with BDI at 663 points down by 15.78 pct closing at 726 points and cape index was down by 5.73 pct cl ...
Friday, 27 January 12
DEMOLITION ACTIVITY NEEDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS YEAR AS WELL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The oversupply of vessels in most shipping sectors is so intense that it’s become clear to ship owners that unless they scrap as many of their ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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