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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 26 January 12
ABM INVESTAMA SEALS US$100 MIO CONTRACT - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Reswara Minergi Hartama, a subsidary of PT ABM Investama Tbk (ABMM), has sealed a 2 million tons of coal export co ...
Thursday, 26 January 12
DRY BULK MARKETS DOWNFALL KNOWS NO LIMITS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market’s demise seems to have no visible end, as China’s Lunar Year Holidays continue this week, thus leaving demand with n ...
Wednesday, 25 January 12
CLEAN AND CLEAR MINING PERMITS TO BE COMPLETED END OF 2012 - BISNIS.COM
Bisnis.com reported that, the government plans to announce 700 mining permits with "clean and clear" status without overlapping on other p ...
Tuesday, 24 January 12
ANOTHER SEVERE DROP IN THE CAPESIZE - BRS
The lunar year celebrations and the high number of new building deliveries (more than 35 Capes so far in January as owners push 2011 deliveries into ...
Tuesday, 24 January 12
BUKIT ASAM FY11 NET PROFIT SURGES 50% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, the state-controlled PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) estimated to book Rp3 trillion (approximately US$ 335,570,469) net prof ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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