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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 10 February 12
TONNAGE KEEPS ON COMING - DREWRY
Drewry Maritime Research’s latest edition of its Dry Bulk Forecaster pulls no punches in its assessment of a market that looks certain to cont ...
Friday, 10 February 12
GIVE PERMIT POWERS TO GOVERNORS: MINERS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, following clashes between mining companies and local residents, the Indonesian Mining Association (IMA) wants to tra ...
Thursday, 09 February 12
AUSTRALIA'S EPIC TO ACQUIRE 15,500 HA COAL EXPLORATION LICENCES IN EAST KALIMANTAN, INDONESIA
COALspot.com - Epic Resources Limited to acquire two coal concessions in Kutai Barat regency, East Kalimantan, Indonesia.
According to company's ...
Thursday, 09 February 12
RESOURCE ALAM BUYS 28,521HA CONCESSIONS - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk (KKGI), owned by Adijanto family, today announced acquisition of 75% interest in PT Ka ...
Tuesday, 07 February 12
DRY BULK MARKET FINALLY STOPS DECLINE, POSTS FIRST RISE IN MORE THAN A MONTH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
After falling to near record lows, not seen since the mid-80s the dry bulk market has finally stopped its path to "hell", with the industr ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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