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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 13 February 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The current sentiment in the dry market resembles memories from the end of 2008, when the Baltic Dry Index closed at the level of 663 points on Dece ...
Sunday, 12 February 12
INDONESIA HAS ISSUED A REGULATION TO BAN THE EXPORT OF UNPROCESSED MINERALS AND METALS BY 2014
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has finally issued a ministerial decree (7 Year 2012 dated 6 February 2012) to ban the export of unpro ...
Sunday, 12 February 12
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX CLIMBS 10.51%
COALspot.com - "The markets touched record lows not seen since mid 80’s. However there was some good news with signs of market recovery a ...
Saturday, 11 February 12
A SNAPSHOT ON THE ECONOMIC AND SHIPPING ENVIRONMENT - GOLDEN DESTINY
The week was highlighted with intense worries in the eurozone for Greece to secure its second bailout of $130billion by applying a ...
Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeat ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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