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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 08 March 12
INDONESIA'S COAL SECTOR CAN BENEFIT FROM CLEARER REGULATIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says Indonesia's coal mining sector should continue to see strong growth prospects but can benefit from clearer and more predictable ...
Thursday, 08 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET ON THE RISE; CHINAS COAL IMPORTS COULD INCREASE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept on rising back to healthier levels yesterday, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) the industry’s benchmark, marking its 8 ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE GAINS FOR SECOND MONTH
COALspot.com - Indonesia raised the monthly coal reference price for sales in March by 1.15 percent, the second increase since February.
The Mini ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
INDONESIA TO LIMIT FOREIGN OWNERSHIP IN MINES TO 49 PERCENT WITHIN 10 YEARS OF PRODUCTION
COALspot.com - Foreign holders of mining licenses in Indonesia have to divert 51% of their stakes to Indonesian government or domestic entitie ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
ASSESS ASIAS POTENTIAL, DEVELOPMENTS AND APPETITE FOR SHALE AT SHALE GAS SUMMIT
Press Release - Assess Asia’s Potential, Developments and Appetite for Shale at Shale Gas Summit on 23-24 Apr, 2012 in Beijing
China is rep ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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