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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 12 March 12
DELTA DUNIA 1M OVERBURDEN DROPS 3.1% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Indonesia's second largest coal mining contractor PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (DOID) reported a 25 million bank ...
Monday, 12 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The first days of March appear to be more encouraging for dry bulk operators, but the outlook is still gloomy for the rest of year with earnings for ...
Sunday, 11 March 12
FREIGHT RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FIRM- VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week saw another upward trend with all indices up except for the Cape index.
The BDI was up by 6.87 pct closing at 824 points ...
Friday, 09 March 12
MINING IN INDONESIA: RESTRICTION ON FOREIGN INVESTMENT - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Recently Govt has passed regulation instructing foreign mining companies to reduce their ownership stake.
The regulation known as ...
Friday, 09 March 12
SHIP OWNERS LOOKING TO CHINA FOR REVIVAL, WHILE THEY KEEP SELLING OLD SHIPS FOR SCRAP - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With China’s economic policy plan for the future on every ship owner’s mind, at least those involved in the dry bulk industry, the lates ...
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Showing 4811 to 4815 news of total 6871 |
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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