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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 05 March 12
SOME RESOURCE TITANS NOT THRILLED WITH INDONESIAN EXPORT BAN - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, local representatives of major business associations in East Kalimantan have protested a government regulation that ...
Monday, 05 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
An air of optimism poured in the market this week for dry bulk shippers with the Baltic Dry Index recording daily gains during the end of February b ...
Sunday, 04 March 12
SE ASIA WAS FIRM FOR TRIPS TO INDIA AND CHINA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week saw another upward trend with all indices up and generally market was firm.
The BDI was up by 7.38 pct closing at 771 po ...
Friday, 02 March 12
DJMBP HAS ANNOUNCED SECOND BATCH OF CLEAR N CLEAN CERTIFIED MINERS
COALspot.com - The Directorate general of mineral & coal of Indonesia has announced second batch of companies who have passed IUP Clear and Clea ...
Thursday, 01 March 12
BUKIT ASAM TARGETS EUROPEAN INVESTORS
COALspot.com - PT. Bukit Asam (persero) Tbk, Indonesian state owned coal miner is planning to conduct road show in Europe next week to target at Eur ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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