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Wednesday, 19 October 11
METALLURGICAL COAL PRICES TO DROP BELOW US$240/TONNE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Metallurgical Coal Prices to Drop Below US$240/tonne by Q4 2012 But Long-term Demand Fundamentals Remain Robust
Wood Mackenzie’s Near-Term Market Outlook cautions of falling metallurgical coal prices from now to Q4 2012, dropping from the current quarterly price of US$285/tonne for premium hard coking coal to under US$240/tonne. However, this price remains significantly above the marginal cost of production and longer-term drivers point to robust metallurgical coal demand in the Asia-Pacific market.
Prakash Sharma, Coal Market Analyst says, “Prices have started to fall from the last quarter and will continue to decline due to softening demand and the recovery of supply from flood-hit basins earlier in the year. The weakening demand is largely attributed to the global macroeconomic slowdown which appears to have accelerated through the summer in much of the developed world. Leading industrial indicators suggest a sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity – reflected by the decline in global steel production.”
Wood Mackenzie’s Senior Economist, Ed Rawle says, “The global economy has entered a period of extreme uncertainty. Wood Mackenzie’s global Gross Domestic Product growth forecast has been revised down from 3.1% to 2.8% in 2011, and 3.7% to 3.6% in 2012. But there are significant downside risks to this outlook. The Eurozone debt crisis remains unresolved and threatens to trigger a European banking crisis. Due to the sheer scale of the European banking sector, this is of major concern since it would likely lead to a global banking crisis with implications for us all.”
Despite near-term downward price movements, Wood Mackenzie says that several factors have the potential to turn this trend. Firstly, some mines have not fully recovered from the 2011 Queensland floods. The approaching wet season could lead to further delays in some mines attaining full production levels. Secondly, persistent worker-strikes at BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance operated mines have the ability to tighten the market as these operations produce 26% of globally traded metallurgical coal. Lastly, US low-volatility supply has been curtailed by mine outages and changes in blending techniques following various mergers.
In the long-term , investors are still energized by the coking coal space with high margins in a current supply-constrained world. Mr. Sharma explains, ”Strong long-term demand is likely to support Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) activity that has been ongoing since early 2008. Demand growth will be led by emerging markets with Asia accounting for 75% of global metallurgical coal demand by 2030. China and India will be key demand drivers, contributing to 60% of Asia Pacific’s total import demand.”
The growth potential of China and India can be attributed to their economic climate relative to the rest of the world. Mr. Rawle says, “The bright spot amidst the uncertainty continues to be the developing world. Specifically, we see China and much of Asia powering ahead, drawing on growth drivers that have been deliberately de-coupled from troubled developed economies over the past couple of years.”
Wood Mackenzie says that China’s reliance on coking coal imports will increase due to insufficient supply of high quality coking coal in the domestic market. China is forging ahead with plans to close all blast furnaces under 1,000 cubic metres and install new blast furnaces with capacities in excess of 2,000 cubic metres. The larger furnaces need coke produced from high-quality coking coal. As a result, a larger volume of this type of coal will be required and China will have to turn to suppliers of the likes of Australia, Mongolia and, to a lesser extent, Mozambique who are all expanding supply.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, ”The industry should expect premium metallurgical coal prices to fall to a price below US$240/tonne from now until Q4 2012. Although further downside price risks remain given ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and new sources of supply entering the market place, the constant threat of additional unpredictable mine outages and the upcoming rainy season in key supply basins should keep them from falling too far. Long-term demand also remains strong in emerging markets.”
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com. Wood Mackenzie is a research consulting company and it is our preference is to be referred to as research consultants.
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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply w ...
Wednesday, 14 December 11
MINER TOBA BARA SEJAHTRA PLANS IPO IN 1ST HALF OF 2012 - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Coal miner Toba Bara Sejahtra is aiming high next year, hoping to capitalize on renewed bullish sentiment in the lo ...
Wednesday, 14 December 11
TIMAH PLANS TO BOOST ITS COAL PRODUCTION TO TWO MILLION TONS PER ANNUM - SOURCES
COALspot.com - Timah plans to boost its coal production to two million tons per annum. The company also expects to acquire coal concession with mini ...
Wednesday, 14 December 11
BORNEO RESOURCE INVESTMENTS LTD. FINALIZES ACQUISITION OF INTEGRA PRIMA
COALspot.com - Borneo Resource Investments Ltd., announced that it has finalized the acquisition of an additional 1,300 hectare coal mining concessi ...
Tuesday, 13 December 11
BERAU COAL SCOUTS US$1.61 BIO SALES - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining company PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (BRAU), that is 85% owned by London-listed company Bumi Plc, estimates a ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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