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Wednesday, 19 October 11
METALLURGICAL COAL PRICES TO DROP BELOW US$240/TONNE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Metallurgical Coal Prices to Drop Below US$240/tonne by Q4 2012 But Long-term Demand Fundamentals Remain Robust
Wood Mackenzie’s Near-Term Market Outlook cautions of falling metallurgical coal prices from now to Q4 2012, dropping from the current quarterly price of US$285/tonne for premium hard coking coal to under US$240/tonne. However, this price remains significantly above the marginal cost of production and longer-term drivers point to robust metallurgical coal demand in the Asia-Pacific market.
Prakash Sharma, Coal Market Analyst says, “Prices have started to fall from the last quarter and will continue to decline due to softening demand and the recovery of supply from flood-hit basins earlier in the year. The weakening demand is largely attributed to the global macroeconomic slowdown which appears to have accelerated through the summer in much of the developed world. Leading industrial indicators suggest a sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity – reflected by the decline in global steel production.”
Wood Mackenzie’s Senior Economist, Ed Rawle says, “The global economy has entered a period of extreme uncertainty. Wood Mackenzie’s global Gross Domestic Product growth forecast has been revised down from 3.1% to 2.8% in 2011, and 3.7% to 3.6% in 2012. But there are significant downside risks to this outlook. The Eurozone debt crisis remains unresolved and threatens to trigger a European banking crisis. Due to the sheer scale of the European banking sector, this is of major concern since it would likely lead to a global banking crisis with implications for us all.”
Despite near-term downward price movements, Wood Mackenzie says that several factors have the potential to turn this trend. Firstly, some mines have not fully recovered from the 2011 Queensland floods. The approaching wet season could lead to further delays in some mines attaining full production levels. Secondly, persistent worker-strikes at BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance operated mines have the ability to tighten the market as these operations produce 26% of globally traded metallurgical coal. Lastly, US low-volatility supply has been curtailed by mine outages and changes in blending techniques following various mergers.
In the long-term , investors are still energized by the coking coal space with high margins in a current supply-constrained world. Mr. Sharma explains, ”Strong long-term demand is likely to support Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) activity that has been ongoing since early 2008. Demand growth will be led by emerging markets with Asia accounting for 75% of global metallurgical coal demand by 2030. China and India will be key demand drivers, contributing to 60% of Asia Pacific’s total import demand.”
The growth potential of China and India can be attributed to their economic climate relative to the rest of the world. Mr. Rawle says, “The bright spot amidst the uncertainty continues to be the developing world. Specifically, we see China and much of Asia powering ahead, drawing on growth drivers that have been deliberately de-coupled from troubled developed economies over the past couple of years.”
Wood Mackenzie says that China’s reliance on coking coal imports will increase due to insufficient supply of high quality coking coal in the domestic market. China is forging ahead with plans to close all blast furnaces under 1,000 cubic metres and install new blast furnaces with capacities in excess of 2,000 cubic metres. The larger furnaces need coke produced from high-quality coking coal. As a result, a larger volume of this type of coal will be required and China will have to turn to suppliers of the likes of Australia, Mongolia and, to a lesser extent, Mozambique who are all expanding supply.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, ”The industry should expect premium metallurgical coal prices to fall to a price below US$240/tonne from now until Q4 2012. Although further downside price risks remain given ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and new sources of supply entering the market place, the constant threat of additional unpredictable mine outages and the upcoming rainy season in key supply basins should keep them from falling too far. Long-term demand also remains strong in emerging markets.”
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com. Wood Mackenzie is a research consulting company and it is our preference is to be referred to as research consultants.
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Tuesday, 13 December 11
CAPESIZES AND PANAMAXES LEAD DRY BULK MARKET HIGHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched closer to the 2,000 mark on Monday, with Panamaxes rebounding firmly and leading the gains. As a result, the industry&rsq ...
Monday, 12 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR BALANCE AS WE ENTER 2012 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
During the past few months, freight rates for dry bulk carriers, especially Capesizes have increased significantly, providing ship owners with a muc ...
Sunday, 11 December 11
THE PANAMAX INDEX ENDED ON POSITIVE DIRECTION - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI and Cape index continued the upward trend this week also with BDI up by 3.00 pct closing at 1,922 points and Cape index up by ...
Saturday, 10 December 11
MAHAKAM RIVER RESUMES COAL TRANSPORTATION
COALspot.com - East Kalimantan local government has resumed limited coal barging through Mahakam River after two weeks of suspension following the c ...
Friday, 09 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET REBOUNDS ON HEALTHIER DEMAND OUTLOOK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market edged forward yesterday, at the highest rate of the past couple of weeks, as a result of stonger iron ore demand, backed by lowe ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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