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Wednesday, 19 October 11
METALLURGICAL COAL PRICES TO DROP BELOW US$240/TONNE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Metallurgical Coal Prices to Drop Below US$240/tonne by Q4 2012 But Long-term Demand Fundamentals Remain Robust
Wood Mackenzie’s Near-Term Market Outlook cautions of falling metallurgical coal prices from now to Q4 2012, dropping from the current quarterly price of US$285/tonne for premium hard coking coal to under US$240/tonne. However, this price remains significantly above the marginal cost of production and longer-term drivers point to robust metallurgical coal demand in the Asia-Pacific market.
Prakash Sharma, Coal Market Analyst says, “Prices have started to fall from the last quarter and will continue to decline due to softening demand and the recovery of supply from flood-hit basins earlier in the year. The weakening demand is largely attributed to the global macroeconomic slowdown which appears to have accelerated through the summer in much of the developed world. Leading industrial indicators suggest a sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity – reflected by the decline in global steel production.”
Wood Mackenzie’s Senior Economist, Ed Rawle says, “The global economy has entered a period of extreme uncertainty. Wood Mackenzie’s global Gross Domestic Product growth forecast has been revised down from 3.1% to 2.8% in 2011, and 3.7% to 3.6% in 2012. But there are significant downside risks to this outlook. The Eurozone debt crisis remains unresolved and threatens to trigger a European banking crisis. Due to the sheer scale of the European banking sector, this is of major concern since it would likely lead to a global banking crisis with implications for us all.”
Despite near-term downward price movements, Wood Mackenzie says that several factors have the potential to turn this trend. Firstly, some mines have not fully recovered from the 2011 Queensland floods. The approaching wet season could lead to further delays in some mines attaining full production levels. Secondly, persistent worker-strikes at BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance operated mines have the ability to tighten the market as these operations produce 26% of globally traded metallurgical coal. Lastly, US low-volatility supply has been curtailed by mine outages and changes in blending techniques following various mergers.
In the long-term , investors are still energized by the coking coal space with high margins in a current supply-constrained world. Mr. Sharma explains, ”Strong long-term demand is likely to support Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) activity that has been ongoing since early 2008. Demand growth will be led by emerging markets with Asia accounting for 75% of global metallurgical coal demand by 2030. China and India will be key demand drivers, contributing to 60% of Asia Pacific’s total import demand.”
The growth potential of China and India can be attributed to their economic climate relative to the rest of the world. Mr. Rawle says, “The bright spot amidst the uncertainty continues to be the developing world. Specifically, we see China and much of Asia powering ahead, drawing on growth drivers that have been deliberately de-coupled from troubled developed economies over the past couple of years.”
Wood Mackenzie says that China’s reliance on coking coal imports will increase due to insufficient supply of high quality coking coal in the domestic market. China is forging ahead with plans to close all blast furnaces under 1,000 cubic metres and install new blast furnaces with capacities in excess of 2,000 cubic metres. The larger furnaces need coke produced from high-quality coking coal. As a result, a larger volume of this type of coal will be required and China will have to turn to suppliers of the likes of Australia, Mongolia and, to a lesser extent, Mozambique who are all expanding supply.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, ”The industry should expect premium metallurgical coal prices to fall to a price below US$240/tonne from now until Q4 2012. Although further downside price risks remain given ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and new sources of supply entering the market place, the constant threat of additional unpredictable mine outages and the upcoming rainy season in key supply basins should keep them from falling too far. Long-term demand also remains strong in emerging markets.”
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com. Wood Mackenzie is a research consulting company and it is our preference is to be referred to as research consultants.
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Thursday, 22 December 11
RI WILL NOT PLAY CATCH-UP WITH GLOBAL COAL DEMAND - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted in its Coal Market Report 2011 that over the next five years, gl ...
Thursday, 22 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS LOSING TRACTION AHEAD OF HOLIDAY SEASON - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept retreating in the middle of the week, as charterers seem to be looking towards the holiday season and the start of the new ye ...
Tuesday, 20 December 11
THE COAL IMPORT INTO CHINA WAS QUIETER AS COAL STOCKS WERE AT HIGH LEVELS - BRS
The BDI ended the week at 1888 points (-1.8%), the BCI corrected to 3572 (-3.4%), the BPI was up at 1,775 (+3.6%), the BSI dropped to 1193 (-3.0%) a ...
Tuesday, 20 December 11
INDIA IMPORTS 66.41 PERCENT MORE COAL FROM INDONESIA LAST MONTH - SOURCES
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 33.476* mln mt of coal in November, which is slightly higher than its Octobe ...
Monday, 19 December 11
KOPEX COMMITS ADDITIONAL ONE MILLION DOLLAR FOR PT TRANSCOAL MINERGY
COALspot.com - Mining contractor Kopex has agreed to extend a further US$1 million to finance the remainder of the expanded drill program at PT Tran ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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