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Thursday, 13 January 11
DRY BULK RATES HIT NEW MULTI-MONTH LOWS ON AUSTRALIAS FLOODS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Floods in Australia’s Queensland has seriously disrupted coal shipments and together with a flood of vessels has pushed freight rates for dry bulk carriers to new multi-month lows. As a result, the Baltic Dry Index fell further yesterday to just 1,453 points, losing 1.82% on the day, while the suffering Capesize segment retreated by a further 4.77%.
The BDI has now recorded 21 straight losing sessions, losing almost 34% of its value. According to calculations from John Cotzias, head of N.Cotzias Shipping Group, in 58 sessions spanning at just less of three months, there have been only 10 days, during which the index was positive.
“The Cape index is counting 12 falling days and has overall lost in this period close to 40% of its volume. BDI is currently below levels of 5 Feb 2009 when the index was rising” said Mr. Cotzias. The market hasn’t seen such low levels since November of 2002, except of course the October 2008 market crash.
In a separate analysis, BIMCO’s shipping analyst Peter Sand said that all in all – the worst flooding in Queensland for more than 50 years “is not only bad for Australia, it's also bad for shipping as volumes on coal and iron ore go down considerably - and more vessels are free on the market putting pressure on the spot market for vessels. Average Capesize time charter rate that has been falling since end of November is now down at USD 11,266 per day trading lower every day” said Sand. He went on to state that iron ore which is exported out of West Australia is not directly affected yet even though that area has received much rain also. Lower steel production and thus also lower seaborne volumes of the two key dry bulk commodities is set to impact the market negatively over the next months. Australia is the world's largest overall coal exporter ,No. 2 in thermal coal exports after Indonesia but second to none in coking coal exports. Australia is key global coking coal supplier accounting for 60% of global seaborne exports. Within thermal coal Australia accounts for 20%. Thermal coal is used for power generation and heating, while coking coal is used in the production steel. As we have already seen, coal customers will try to find other ways to satisfy their demand for thermal coal but the real trouble is coking coal - as it is very hard to get from elsewhere. Shortage of Australian coking coal means that the worlds steel producers, primarily located in Asia, can be forced to cut the production of steel and with it also the demand for iron ore. ”A slowdown in steel production and iron ore demand is toxic to dry bulk shipping in general and for the larger vessels, Capesize and Panamax in particular. The iron ore contract prices for Q1-2011 have already been set at 7% higher than the previous quarter - but spot iron ore prices can still fluctuate and will move south on lower demand. China imports 40-50% of its coking coal from Australia. Japan, the world’s largest coking coal importer is heavily impacted also. The flooding may see contract prices for coking coal hiking significantly due to spot prices going sharply up as a result of the tight market. A part of the mechanism behind the contract prices is the spot price development. This may result in coking coal prices moving from USD 225 per tonnes in Q1-2011 up to USD 270-300 per tonnes according to several commodity analysts.
When the mines call force majeure - the steel mills must go to the spot market for coking coal - at a much higher price than the contract price for this important steel production ingredient - if they can get it at all. Alternative sources of coking coal are the US and Canada but reports are that the tight market has impacted prices also there, leading to higher commodity prices. So if coking coal spot goes up on tight supply - iron ore spot price can go down as a consequence of lower demand. A price hike in coking coal will increase the
production cost for steel - in a market already running on low margins” said BIMCO’s analyst.
So where will it go from here? “It is a string of events that cause shipping demand out of Australia to go down. Moreover the market place is plentifully supplied with tonnage so the fact that some of the commodities will be supplied from sources further away will only have very limited impact on the market. The first quarter of 2011 - do not hold great prospects for the dry bulk market - mainly because the oversupply of vessels is getting too heavy even for the "normal" inefficiencies of the market to make impact on the freight rates. The Australian situation is set to affect the market for at least a of couple months - meaning that the situation outlined above will stay a drag on the overall market and freight rates for some time” concluded Sand.
Talking about the potential overcapacity, Cotzias said that there is a total of over 3,500 dry bulk carriers on order pending until 2014 of a total of 250 million tons dwt. “These orders are split chronologically as follows: 1,854 ships are due for 2011 making up a total of 128 mil dwt, 1,106 ships due in 2012 of 87 mil dwt and 360 ships of 30 mil dwt due for 2013-2014. In total there is a massive orderbook only on the Bulkers section and we should not understate the fact that 2011 faces us with more than 55% of the total orderbook and that we should also include in this 114 orders of 4mil dwt that are “carried forward” from 2010”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 01 March 11
GANGAVARAM PORT, AN INDIAN MODERN PORT CREATES RECORD
COALspot.com - Gangavaram Port, the deepest and the most modern port in India creates yet another record by discharging 65349 MT Coking Coal in 24 h ...
Monday, 28 February 11
COAL INDIA HIKES PRICES BY 12% FOR SELECT CONSUMERS - ECONOMIC TIMES
Economic Times reported that, Coal India has raised prices by an average 12% for some of its consumers from Sunday, boosting its revenue by 6,000 cr ...
Saturday, 26 February 11
CIL TO HIKE COAL PRICES BY 15 PC FROM TONIGHT - THE TIMES OF INDIA
The Times of India reported that, an Indian State-run coal producer, Coal India will raise the price of coal on an average by about 15 per cent with ...
Saturday, 26 February 11
SUPRAMAX INDEX WAS UP ABOUT 10 PERCENT THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market started on a weak note and seemed to have lost the momentum seen the previous week. The main sectors affected were Cape an ...
Saturday, 26 February 11
PEABODY ENERGY ENTERS INTO COAL SOURCING AGREEMENT ACCESSING INDONESIAN COAL FOR EXPORT
Peabody Energy today said it has entered into an agreement with Indonesia's PT Cahaya Energi Mandiri (CEM) to source 2 million tons of coal for Asi ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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