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Tuesday, 04 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET TO RANGE BETWEEN 1,700 AND 2,600 POINTS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2011, ANALYSTS SAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 As we entered 2011, ship owners and analysts, as well as shipbrokers are looking into their “crystal balls” to try to decode the dry bulk market’s behavior this year. Those who will succeed may benefit in their business. A recent poll of analysts provided some insight as to where the industry’s benchmark will range during the first quarter of 2011.
According to them, the BDI will range from 1,700 to 2,600, with an average of 2,118 points. They also said that Capesize rates will average $26,000/day (range of $20,000 to $35,600), while for Panamaxes the average daily rate is deemed to be $20,000 (low of $15,000 and high of $23,100).
UOB’s analysts appeared to be the most bullish ones in terms of the BDI’s course during the first quarter saying that it will average at 2,600 points, while among the most conservative ones was ABG with a prediction of 1,700 points. Other experts like Drewry Shipping placed the BDI at 2,280 points, while DNB NOR Markets gave an estimate of 1,955 points. Similarly, Macquarie expects Capesize rates to average $22,500/day and Panamaxes $16,000/day. Fearnley’s sees rates for Capesizes at $27,500/day and Panamaxes at $19,800/day, while Oppenheimer predicts rates of $30,500 for Capesizes and $22,000 for Panamaxes. Finally, Nordea said Capesize rates would average $26,000 and Panamaxes $20,000.
Meanwhile, in its latest weekly report, Barry Rogliano Salles said that after a stronger than expected performance in 2010, rates finished on a sombre note in December with the BDI at 1,773 points. Apart from the slump seen in July, this is the lowest level recorded for 2010. Early predictions that Chinese ore imports would continue to drive the market up in 2010 proved incorrect. Official figures show China imported 560.5m tonnes Jan-Nov, compared to 565.8m in the same period in 2009. Among exporters, Australia was the biggest beneficiary, increasing its exports to China by 2.4% year-on-year, while the other major producers Brazil, India and South Africa saw their exports decline approximately 9%, 7% and 12%. However China continues to diversify its ore sources, and many smaller producers such as Iran, Indonesia, Peru and Chile increased their sales during 2010.
Commenting on the Capesize market the Paris-based shipbroker said that it was a very quiet week, with little happening in the final 10 days of the year. “Overall, the the sentiment appeared flat to weakening, and in the futures market short-term prices fell. January Cape 4TC is now trading at just over US$20,000 per day, compared to over US$23,000 in the week before Christmas. However for 2H 2011 rates remain little changed. Ship deliveries slowed in the final fortnight of the year, but we can expect a ‘bunching’ of deliveries in early 2011 as ships completed in December are held over for the new year” said the report.
Similarly, on the Panamax front, this week was also very quiet as a result of the festive season. “The The TA round market hovered in the mid US$20,000s per day and seemed stable, mainly due to the thin number of candidates open in this area and some ECSA cargoes activity. However, ballasters from the Far East and India were apparent and should balance out the market. Out of India, the market was relatively quiet. Goa’s exports were impacted by the truckers’ strike and the iron ore ban continues. The WCI-China route was traded in the mid S$10,000s. The ECI market was relatively quiet except for Haldia. In the Far East, the market did not improve and levels reached US$8-8,500 per day for a Nopac round. The short period activity was sluggish and the last reported fixtures were hanging around the mid US$10,000s for Tess 74 delivery North China or India redelivery worldwide. One-year period candidates were traded around US$16- 17,000 per day” BRS concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 17 February 11
UNCERTAINTY AND VOLATILITY - FEARNBULK
Handy
Recovering market as evidenced by the solid USD 16k/day achieved by a handymax from Continent to east Med with scrap. More short period requ ...
Tuesday, 15 February 11
INDONESIAN COAL FOR HARYANA THERMAL PLANTS - PUNJAB NEWS LINE
To tide over the recurring coal shortage at thermal plants Haryana Power Generation Corporation Limited (HPGCL) has gone for Malaysian coal for its ...
Tuesday, 15 February 11
TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY TO CHOKE FREIGHT RATES IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In a new report assessing the dry bulk market, BIMCO’s analysis suggests that freight rates for Capesize vessels are likely to remain depresse ...
Sunday, 13 February 11
COAL MARKETS 2011 TO HIGHLIGHT INDONESIAN COAL AND NEW SOURCES OF COAL SUPPLY
“Over 300 senior decision-makers from coal mining, power and trading companies expected to congregate in Singapore”
Press Release - K ...
Sunday, 13 February 11
YEAR OF RABBIT PUSHING FREIGHT MARKET UP
COALspot.com – “The market finally moved up with firmness in all sectors with some positive signs of markets recovering”, said Cap ...
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- The University of Queensland
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- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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