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Tuesday, 04 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET TO RANGE BETWEEN 1,700 AND 2,600 POINTS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2011, ANALYSTS SAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 As we entered 2011, ship owners and analysts, as well as shipbrokers are looking into their “crystal balls” to try to decode the dry bulk market’s behavior this year. Those who will succeed may benefit in their business. A recent poll of analysts provided some insight as to where the industry’s benchmark will range during the first quarter of 2011.
According to them, the BDI will range from 1,700 to 2,600, with an average of 2,118 points. They also said that Capesize rates will average $26,000/day (range of $20,000 to $35,600), while for Panamaxes the average daily rate is deemed to be $20,000 (low of $15,000 and high of $23,100).
UOB’s analysts appeared to be the most bullish ones in terms of the BDI’s course during the first quarter saying that it will average at 2,600 points, while among the most conservative ones was ABG with a prediction of 1,700 points. Other experts like Drewry Shipping placed the BDI at 2,280 points, while DNB NOR Markets gave an estimate of 1,955 points. Similarly, Macquarie expects Capesize rates to average $22,500/day and Panamaxes $16,000/day. Fearnley’s sees rates for Capesizes at $27,500/day and Panamaxes at $19,800/day, while Oppenheimer predicts rates of $30,500 for Capesizes and $22,000 for Panamaxes. Finally, Nordea said Capesize rates would average $26,000 and Panamaxes $20,000.
Meanwhile, in its latest weekly report, Barry Rogliano Salles said that after a stronger than expected performance in 2010, rates finished on a sombre note in December with the BDI at 1,773 points. Apart from the slump seen in July, this is the lowest level recorded for 2010. Early predictions that Chinese ore imports would continue to drive the market up in 2010 proved incorrect. Official figures show China imported 560.5m tonnes Jan-Nov, compared to 565.8m in the same period in 2009. Among exporters, Australia was the biggest beneficiary, increasing its exports to China by 2.4% year-on-year, while the other major producers Brazil, India and South Africa saw their exports decline approximately 9%, 7% and 12%. However China continues to diversify its ore sources, and many smaller producers such as Iran, Indonesia, Peru and Chile increased their sales during 2010.
Commenting on the Capesize market the Paris-based shipbroker said that it was a very quiet week, with little happening in the final 10 days of the year. “Overall, the the sentiment appeared flat to weakening, and in the futures market short-term prices fell. January Cape 4TC is now trading at just over US$20,000 per day, compared to over US$23,000 in the week before Christmas. However for 2H 2011 rates remain little changed. Ship deliveries slowed in the final fortnight of the year, but we can expect a ‘bunching’ of deliveries in early 2011 as ships completed in December are held over for the new year” said the report.
Similarly, on the Panamax front, this week was also very quiet as a result of the festive season. “The The TA round market hovered in the mid US$20,000s per day and seemed stable, mainly due to the thin number of candidates open in this area and some ECSA cargoes activity. However, ballasters from the Far East and India were apparent and should balance out the market. Out of India, the market was relatively quiet. Goa’s exports were impacted by the truckers’ strike and the iron ore ban continues. The WCI-China route was traded in the mid S$10,000s. The ECI market was relatively quiet except for Haldia. In the Far East, the market did not improve and levels reached US$8-8,500 per day for a Nopac round. The short period activity was sluggish and the last reported fixtures were hanging around the mid US$10,000s for Tess 74 delivery North China or India redelivery worldwide. One-year period candidates were traded around US$16- 17,000 per day” BRS concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 24 February 11
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS LOSING GROUND, CAPESIZES SUFFERING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market lost further ground yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index was rapidly falling, ending the session d ...
Thursday, 24 February 11
SUPRAS ARE FIXED AT CLOSE TO 10K FOR TRIPS VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA WITH COAL - FEARNBULK
Handy
After a short lived surge in rates the Atlantic market has flattened out due to too many spot vessels. The USGulf has cooled down somewhat f ...
Wednesday, 23 February 11
LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF COAL COULD TRIP MEGA POWER PLANT - THE ECONOMIC TIMES
The Economic Times, an Indian leading news paper reported that, an acute shortage of domestic coal is threatening to destabilize new power generatio ...
Wednesday, 23 February 11
DRY BULK MARKET BACK ON RETREAT MODE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The two week rise of dry bulk freight rates seems to have come to a halt this week, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) lo ...
Wednesday, 23 February 11
INDONESIA NEEDS TO REVISE EXPORT BAN ON 5600 GAD COAL EXPORT - INDUSTRY
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government may be forced to revise its 2014 timeline for the proposed ban on all low quality coal exports, Patrick Han ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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