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Tuesday, 04 January 11
DRY BULK MARKET TO RANGE BETWEEN 1,700 AND 2,600 POINTS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2011, ANALYSTS SAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 As we entered 2011, ship owners and analysts, as well as shipbrokers are looking into their “crystal balls” to try to decode the dry bulk market’s behavior this year. Those who will succeed may benefit in their business. A recent poll of analysts provided some insight as to where the industry’s benchmark will range during the first quarter of 2011.
According to them, the BDI will range from 1,700 to 2,600, with an average of 2,118 points. They also said that Capesize rates will average $26,000/day (range of $20,000 to $35,600), while for Panamaxes the average daily rate is deemed to be $20,000 (low of $15,000 and high of $23,100).
UOB’s analysts appeared to be the most bullish ones in terms of the BDI’s course during the first quarter saying that it will average at 2,600 points, while among the most conservative ones was ABG with a prediction of 1,700 points. Other experts like Drewry Shipping placed the BDI at 2,280 points, while DNB NOR Markets gave an estimate of 1,955 points. Similarly, Macquarie expects Capesize rates to average $22,500/day and Panamaxes $16,000/day. Fearnley’s sees rates for Capesizes at $27,500/day and Panamaxes at $19,800/day, while Oppenheimer predicts rates of $30,500 for Capesizes and $22,000 for Panamaxes. Finally, Nordea said Capesize rates would average $26,000 and Panamaxes $20,000.
Meanwhile, in its latest weekly report, Barry Rogliano Salles said that after a stronger than expected performance in 2010, rates finished on a sombre note in December with the BDI at 1,773 points. Apart from the slump seen in July, this is the lowest level recorded for 2010. Early predictions that Chinese ore imports would continue to drive the market up in 2010 proved incorrect. Official figures show China imported 560.5m tonnes Jan-Nov, compared to 565.8m in the same period in 2009. Among exporters, Australia was the biggest beneficiary, increasing its exports to China by 2.4% year-on-year, while the other major producers Brazil, India and South Africa saw their exports decline approximately 9%, 7% and 12%. However China continues to diversify its ore sources, and many smaller producers such as Iran, Indonesia, Peru and Chile increased their sales during 2010.
Commenting on the Capesize market the Paris-based shipbroker said that it was a very quiet week, with little happening in the final 10 days of the year. “Overall, the the sentiment appeared flat to weakening, and in the futures market short-term prices fell. January Cape 4TC is now trading at just over US$20,000 per day, compared to over US$23,000 in the week before Christmas. However for 2H 2011 rates remain little changed. Ship deliveries slowed in the final fortnight of the year, but we can expect a ‘bunching’ of deliveries in early 2011 as ships completed in December are held over for the new year” said the report.
Similarly, on the Panamax front, this week was also very quiet as a result of the festive season. “The The TA round market hovered in the mid US$20,000s per day and seemed stable, mainly due to the thin number of candidates open in this area and some ECSA cargoes activity. However, ballasters from the Far East and India were apparent and should balance out the market. Out of India, the market was relatively quiet. Goa’s exports were impacted by the truckers’ strike and the iron ore ban continues. The WCI-China route was traded in the mid S$10,000s. The ECI market was relatively quiet except for Haldia. In the Far East, the market did not improve and levels reached US$8-8,500 per day for a Nopac round. The short period activity was sluggish and the last reported fixtures were hanging around the mid US$10,000s for Tess 74 delivery North China or India redelivery worldwide. One-year period candidates were traded around US$16- 17,000 per day” BRS concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 22 February 11
SUPRAMAX MARKET IS IMPROVING IN THE PACIFIC
BRS - A 10% rise in the BDI this week, mostly on the back of Panamax rates and improvements in the Supramax market in the Pacific. For the Capes, ra ...
Monday, 21 February 11
CHURCHILL MINING RECEIVES SIGNIFICANT INTEREST, PROPOSALS TO DEVELOP EAST KUTAI COAL PROJECT - PROACTIVE INVESTORS
Proactive Investors reported that, Churchill Mining has received a number of specific proposals to fund and develop its massive East Kutai coa ...
Monday, 21 February 11
ABOLISH 5% DUTY ON COAL IMPORTS: SHINDE
Indian Express reported that, with acute coal shortage of domestic coal threatening to destabilise its power generation plans, the power ministry ha ...
Saturday, 19 February 11
THE FREIGHT MARKET EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market was quite firm this week with freight rates in South east asia and India/Feast almost up by 30 pct.
However towards end ...
Thursday, 17 February 11
COAL-GEN EUROPE 2011 REAFFIRMS THE IMPORTANCE OF COAL
Press Release: The third COAL-GEN Europe conference and exhibition, kicked off on Tuesday 15 February, with leading experts, professionals and compa ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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