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Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 05 March 12
SOUTHGOBI ANNOUNCES AGREEMENT TO SELL ITS THERMAL COAL TSAGAAN TOLGOI DEPOSIT FOR US$ 30 MILLION
SouthGobi Resources Ltd. (TSX: SGQ, HK: 1878) announced today an agreement to sell its thermal coal property, the Tsagaan Tolgoi Deposit to Modun Re ...
Monday, 05 March 12
SOME RESOURCE TITANS NOT THRILLED WITH INDONESIAN EXPORT BAN - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, local representatives of major business associations in East Kalimantan have protested a government regulation that ...
Monday, 05 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
An air of optimism poured in the market this week for dry bulk shippers with the Baltic Dry Index recording daily gains during the end of February b ...
Sunday, 04 March 12
SE ASIA WAS FIRM FOR TRIPS TO INDIA AND CHINA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week saw another upward trend with all indices up and generally market was firm.
The BDI was up by 7.38 pct closing at 771 po ...
Friday, 02 March 12
DJMBP HAS ANNOUNCED SECOND BATCH OF CLEAR N CLEAN CERTIFIED MINERS
COALspot.com - The Directorate general of mineral & coal of Indonesia has announced second batch of companies who have passed IUP Clear and Clea ...
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Showing 4826 to 4830 news of total 6871 |
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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