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Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 27 February 12
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA DROPS 39.76 PERCENT IN JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 28.21* mln mt of coal in January 2012, slightly lower than its December 2011 ...
Monday, 27 February 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The pessimism in the dry market persists with the Baltic Dry Index still trying to find a steady pace of growth and average time charter earnings fo ...
Sunday, 26 February 12
THE FREIGHT RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA IS LIKELY TO BE FIRM FOR NEXT 2/3 WEEKS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com – “There was not much change in the BDI and other indices this week except for the Panamax which was down by 11.91 pc ...
Friday, 24 February 12
DRY BULK MARKET POSTS FIRST REBOUND IN A WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As was expected since mid-week, the dry bulk market's benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) has managed to put a stop in a 6-day losing rally, endi ...
Thursday, 23 February 12
2.5 PANAMAX VESSELS PER AVAILABLE CARGO FOR MARCH DATES - FEARN BULK
Handy
Another depressing week for Supras in both basins. Lack of fresh business and over-supply of tonnage in the Atlantic pushed rates south. Cont ...
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Showing 4836 to 4840 news of total 6871 |
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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