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Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 09 March 12
SHIP OWNERS LOOKING TO CHINA FOR REVIVAL, WHILE THEY KEEP SELLING OLD SHIPS FOR SCRAP - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With China’s economic policy plan for the future on every ship owner’s mind, at least those involved in the dry bulk industry, the lates ...
Thursday, 08 March 12
INDONESIA'S COAL SECTOR CAN BENEFIT FROM CLEARER REGULATIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says Indonesia's coal mining sector should continue to see strong growth prospects but can benefit from clearer and more predictable ...
Thursday, 08 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET ON THE RISE; CHINAS COAL IMPORTS COULD INCREASE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept on rising back to healthier levels yesterday, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) the industry’s benchmark, marking its 8 ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE GAINS FOR SECOND MONTH
COALspot.com - Indonesia raised the monthly coal reference price for sales in March by 1.15 percent, the second increase since February.
The Mini ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
INDONESIA TO LIMIT FOREIGN OWNERSHIP IN MINES TO 49 PERCENT WITHIN 10 YEARS OF PRODUCTION
COALspot.com - Foreign holders of mining licenses in Indonesia have to divert 51% of their stakes to Indonesian government or domestic entitie ...
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Showing 4816 to 4820 news of total 6871 |
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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