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Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 23 July 11
FAR EAST /SE ASIA ROUTE GAINED US$ 3000 HIGHER THAN LAST WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI further softened to by 2.22 pct and closed at 1323 points. The Cape and Panamax index also softened and closed at 1841 points ...
Saturday, 23 July 11
PANAMAX MARKET FACED A LIMITED ACTIVITY IN ALL BASINS
Handy
Atlantic softening across all segments with little fresh enquiry ex Bsea/Cont/USG and ECSA. Trips to Far east remain healthy. More cargoes ex ...
Friday, 22 July 11
MARUBENI ACQUIRING 42.86% SHARE OF YTL JAWA POWER HOLDINGS
COALspot.com - Japan’s Marubeni Corporation acquisition 42.86% stake in YTL Jawa Power Holdings BV, which owns a 35% equity interest in Indone ...
Thursday, 21 July 11
INDIA IMPORTS 36.033 MILLION TONS OF INDONESIAN COAL TILL JUNE
COALspot.com - Indonesia shipped 28.27 Million tons of coal in June 2011, a 2.3 percent lesser than May export of about 28.962 million tons, I ...
Thursday, 21 July 11
COAL PRICES ARE AT US$ 120 A TONNE
COALspot.com - Indonesian coal production in 2011 is expected to reach 360 million tons or 5.8 percent higher than government's forecasts. The incr ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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