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Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 27 July 11
BLACKSTONE TO INVEST INR 5,000 MILLION (APPRX. US$ 111 MILLION) IN VISA POWER
Press Release - The Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) today announced that it will be investing INR 5,000 million (c. USD 111 million) in VISA Power ...
Tuesday, 26 July 11
UT'S SALES COULD REACH TO 8000 UNITS BY THE END OF 2011
COALspot.com - Sales of Komatsu heavy equipment in the domestic market in the first half of 2011 rose 59 percent to 4333 units compared to the same ...
Monday, 25 July 11
INDONESIA STATE ELECTRICITY COMPANY HAS BURNED 19 MMT OF COAL FOR FIRST HALF OF 2011
COALspot.com - Indonesia's State Electricity Company and other IPPs have burned 19 million tons of coal for first half of this year said,Pamudji Nu ...
Monday, 25 July 11
AKR CORPORINDO TO PRODUCE 0.3 MMT OF COAL BY DECEMBER
COALspot.com - PT AKR Corporindo (AKRA) began producing coal from its mine in Muara Teweh, Central Kalimantan. The company is targeting to pro ...
Sunday, 24 July 11
AN INDIAN PORT SETS A WORLD RECORD FOR CONVENTIONAL COAL DISCHARGE
COALspot.com - Krishnapatnam Port has set a World record for discharging 106,171 tons of steam coal in just 24 hrs using the conventional unloading sy ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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