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Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 31 July 11
CAPES ARE TRADING BELOW $ 9500 PER DAY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI further softened by 4.46 pct and closed at 1264 points which touched below 1300 points after long time. The Cape and Panamax ...
Friday, 29 July 11
5300 ADB COAL WILL BE AT US$ 60/TON IN THIS QUARTER - RAIN
COALspot.com - PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk (KKGI) seeing the average selling price of its coal for the third quarter of this year will increase t ...
Thursday, 28 July 11
PTBA'S COAL PRICES UP IN H1 2011
COALspot.com - Bukit Asam’s coal prices in the second half of 2011 will expected to be higher than the first half of this year, said Sukrisno, ...
Thursday, 28 July 11
RESOURCE ALAM 1H PROFIT SURGES 208 PERCENT
Indonesia's tenth largest coal miner in term of concessions, PT Resource Alam Indonesia (KKGI), part of Rain Group, today reported a skyrocket net ...
Thursday, 28 July 11
DRY BULK MARKET EDGES FURTHER DOWN ON ADDED PRESSURE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an indicator of dry bulk freight rates has reached new lows this week, with yesterday’s session ending further dow ...
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Showing 5166 to 5170 news of total 6871 |
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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