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Tuesday, 11 June 13
OUTLOOK FOR CAPESIZES LOOKS GRIM, DESPITE FALLING IRON ORE PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Things aren't looking all that rosy for the dry bulk market, despite a stronger volume of iron ore imports during the months of March and April, as freight rates haven't had that necessary push to jumpstart. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, "this has been reflected in the continuous drop in price for the commodity which was on an almost free-fall course from its latest price peak of $158.9 per dry ton reached on the 20th of February. The significantly slower economic momentum of China has slashed demand for this development-linked commodity, dragging both the price as well as the freight cost to multi-month lows. This is set to continue for most of the year, with destocking still a central strategy in China", the report said.
According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Research Analyst with Intermodal, "the industry view tends to be that for the long-run, even these bottom-of-the-cycle prices are much higher than what most analysts believe should be the prevailing level. This leads to an expectation of surplus production which eventually could lead to problems in ship-ping, as sources such as South Africa increase their stake in China’s iron ore imports, slashing in turn tonne-mile demand for Capes.
The question that is of more vital importance and an ongoing topic of conversation this year amongst shipping circles is; When can we expect an improvement in market fundamentals?
The answer is looking somewhat more worrying for Capes. It will take a lot more than just cheap commodity prices to get things going again. The Chinese slowdown does not seem to be a temporary hiccup and as such people should be taking it more serious", he noted.
With China accounting last year for 47% of global steel production, there is no debate as to who drives the demand for Capes. "Being heavily dependent on Chinese heavy industry production and investment in infrastructure any further slowdown in economic growth has an imminent impact on freight rates for this sector. Without this driving demand it is hard for this segment to see the sharp rise in freight rates and secondhand prices that many had hoped we would reach within this year. Nevertheless it’s not all black. Baosteel sees a 1-2 pct increase in Chinese steel production this year. The year-to-date increase in output of 7% shows a promise for improved markets in the final quarter, while at the same time it would take a substantial slow-down in output in the second-half for there to be a year-on-year drop in Chinese steel output", Lazaridis said.
With all the above in mind a few questions arise, like for instance, where is the basis for all this business being reported in the Capesize market? Is there a sense that previous bullish sentiment for this size group is leading new investment without there being a real demand for further fleet growth? Could this lead to further dragging out of sub-performing markets?
According to Lazaridis' viewpoint, "over the past couple of months we have seen the majority of trading sessions being reported at average freight figures bellow what is expected for most owners to cover OPEX. Even on some of the more positive trading days, TCE increases are temporary and usually attributed to momentary decreases in bunker costs as well as slow steaming throughout the fleet which helps increase what little extra earnings owners can squeeze out of the current market rates. The counter argument to this can be found in part in the wisdom of old. Through most shipping cycles owners have usually taken a long-term position hoping to make high gains through the cycle rather than only looking to act during periods where the market is on the rise. If they waited for the later we would not have any ship owners left. This may explain activity in the secondhand market however things are very different when it comes to newbuildings. Capesize newbuilding designs have not had the same overhaul in performance that we have seen in other size segments. So why are owner’s risking of drowning the market with further ordering when there are plenty of well-priced secondhand units available. It seems to be yet again the case of easier financing, respectively lower prices, easi-er payment terms and forward delivery that have the upside of even gaining in value before you have made full payment. As promising as all these sound to a potential buyer, a word of caution to the brave, “as you sow, so shall you reap”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 10 September 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 TO BE 511 MMST, 28 PER CENT LOWER THAN IN 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 511 million short tons (MMst), 194 MMst (28%) lower than in 2019. Mitigation efforts related t ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA'S DEMAND KEEPING THE DRY BULK MARKET GOING - PETER SAND | BIMCO
Overview
An impressive recovery in Chinese dry bulk imports has protected the industry from the effects of falling demand in the rest of the wo ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
TANKER SHIPPING: FREIGHT RATES BACK AT LOSS-MAKING LEVELS AFTER 12 VERY PROFITABLE MONTHS - BIMCO
Overview
A stunningly strong 12 months for the tanker shipping industry is now being replaced by lower freight rates, as lower oil product ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS STUMBLE IN AUGUST, RAISING RISK OF SLOW RECOVERY - REFINITIV | BANCHERO COSTA
After posting a mild recovery in July, India's coal imports have stumbled in August as the South Asian nation battles to restart it ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
THE FIRST 8 MONTHS OF 2020, INDONESIA EXPORTED 217.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL BASED ON REFINITIV - BANCHERO COSTA
The coal market has been hit by a weaker global economy as a result of COVID-19 pandemic and falling industrial electricity demand ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
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