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Tuesday, 11 June 13
OUTLOOK FOR CAPESIZES LOOKS GRIM, DESPITE FALLING IRON ORE PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Things aren't looking all that rosy for the dry bulk market, despite a stronger volume of iron ore imports during the months of March and April, as freight rates haven't had that necessary push to jumpstart. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, "this has been reflected in the continuous drop in price for the commodity which was on an almost free-fall course from its latest price peak of $158.9 per dry ton reached on the 20th of February. The significantly slower economic momentum of China has slashed demand for this development-linked commodity, dragging both the price as well as the freight cost to multi-month lows. This is set to continue for most of the year, with destocking still a central strategy in China", the report said.
According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Research Analyst with Intermodal, "the industry view tends to be that for the long-run, even these bottom-of-the-cycle prices are much higher than what most analysts believe should be the prevailing level. This leads to an expectation of surplus production which eventually could lead to problems in ship-ping, as sources such as South Africa increase their stake in China’s iron ore imports, slashing in turn tonne-mile demand for Capes.
The question that is of more vital importance and an ongoing topic of conversation this year amongst shipping circles is; When can we expect an improvement in market fundamentals?
The answer is looking somewhat more worrying for Capes. It will take a lot more than just cheap commodity prices to get things going again. The Chinese slowdown does not seem to be a temporary hiccup and as such people should be taking it more serious", he noted.
With China accounting last year for 47% of global steel production, there is no debate as to who drives the demand for Capes. "Being heavily dependent on Chinese heavy industry production and investment in infrastructure any further slowdown in economic growth has an imminent impact on freight rates for this sector. Without this driving demand it is hard for this segment to see the sharp rise in freight rates and secondhand prices that many had hoped we would reach within this year. Nevertheless it’s not all black. Baosteel sees a 1-2 pct increase in Chinese steel production this year. The year-to-date increase in output of 7% shows a promise for improved markets in the final quarter, while at the same time it would take a substantial slow-down in output in the second-half for there to be a year-on-year drop in Chinese steel output", Lazaridis said.
With all the above in mind a few questions arise, like for instance, where is the basis for all this business being reported in the Capesize market? Is there a sense that previous bullish sentiment for this size group is leading new investment without there being a real demand for further fleet growth? Could this lead to further dragging out of sub-performing markets?
According to Lazaridis' viewpoint, "over the past couple of months we have seen the majority of trading sessions being reported at average freight figures bellow what is expected for most owners to cover OPEX. Even on some of the more positive trading days, TCE increases are temporary and usually attributed to momentary decreases in bunker costs as well as slow steaming throughout the fleet which helps increase what little extra earnings owners can squeeze out of the current market rates. The counter argument to this can be found in part in the wisdom of old. Through most shipping cycles owners have usually taken a long-term position hoping to make high gains through the cycle rather than only looking to act during periods where the market is on the rise. If they waited for the later we would not have any ship owners left. This may explain activity in the secondhand market however things are very different when it comes to newbuildings. Capesize newbuilding designs have not had the same overhaul in performance that we have seen in other size segments. So why are owner’s risking of drowning the market with further ordering when there are plenty of well-priced secondhand units available. It seems to be yet again the case of easier financing, respectively lower prices, easi-er payment terms and forward delivery that have the upside of even gaining in value before you have made full payment. As promising as all these sound to a potential buyer, a word of caution to the brave, “as you sow, so shall you reap”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 09 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The uneventful summer lull which is coming to an end soon has left its stigma on the newbuilding market, which has already been devastated by the g ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
INDIA WON'T KICK ITS COAL HABIT SO EASILY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
India has traditionally considered itself lucky to have been endowed with abundant coal reserves, which it has sought to use to meet its energy nee ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
FINANCING COMPLETE FOR 900MW FIFTH PHASE OF MASSIVE DUBAI SOLAR PARK: ARABIAN BUSINESS
Saudi-based ACWA Power on Thursday announced it has completed the signing of all financing agreements for the fifth phase of the Mohammed bin Rashi ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
POLISH COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO FALL BY 7 MLN TONNES NEXT YEAR: MINISTER - REUTERS
Poland’s demand for coal is expected to fall by around 7 million tonnes next year, or more than 10% of annual hard coal production, after a d ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
PAKISTAN'S NEW 27-YEAR POWER PLAN RISKS LOCKING IN LONG-TERM OVERCAPACITY, LEAVING IMPORTED COAL AND LNG PLANTS STRANDED - IEEFA
Wind and solar, the country’s cheapest source of new generation, also overlooked
Pakistan risks locking itself into building m ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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