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Tuesday, 03 July 12
DRY BULK MARKET INCHED FORWARD AT THE START OF THE WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk market inched forward at the beginning of the new week, prior to the US holidays regarding the celebration of the 4th of July, which is bound to keep the market a bit on the lull side. Still, the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up by 9 points on Monday to 1,013 points, further establishing its position above the “psychological” mark of the 1,000 points. The biggest leader of the new rise was the Capesize market, with the Capesize Index up by 14 points, to 1,204. Small gains were also evident in both the Panamax and the Supramax segments, with the Handysize market remaining stable versus the Friday’s closing.
In a report last week, DVB Bank mentioned that the BDI’s average during 2011 was 1,529 points, which in turn was 44% below the 2010 average of 2,758 points. So far in 2012, the average is below 950 points and is indicative of the dire position that the market has found itself, as oversupply has “drowned” freight rates. DVB sees a sustained downward trend, stating that even delays caused by port delays and congestions and an increase in demand for dry bulk commodities, haven’t been enough to help absorb the new tonnage which is entering the market at a frenetic pace.
It’s worth noting that so far this year a total of of 529 vessels, representing 44.4 million dwt have already been delivered. Another 1,148 vessels of 93.5 million dwt are scheduled for delivery until the end of 2012. This is about 58% of the current orderbook, which stands at 2,001 vessels of 161.3 million dwt, which in turns represents about 25.8% of the current fleet. As a result, asset values as well as earnings are not expected to recover anytime soon. DVB stated that "we may see the markets bottom by the end of 2013 and remain flat thereafter. However, this is subject to owners not indulging in more newbuilding contracting if they see a seasonal spike in freight rates".
According to the research report, the fleet of dry bulk carriers now stands at 9,251 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 625.5 million dwt. The average age of the fleet is about 11 years and 61.8% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years of age is merely 3.1 years – an extremely young fleet. In dwt terms, Large Capes constitute the largest portion of current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest orderbook. The ULBC size range (280K+ dwt) is expanding rapidly and mainly consists of the 400k+ Vale vessels. Thus far, 11 of these behemoths have delivered. In its report, DVB mentioned that "these massive 400K+ dwt vessels will have a negative impact on asset values as well as freight rates not only for this Sub-Sector but for all smaller Sub-Sectors (VLBC, Large Capes and Small Capes) as well. Each of these Valemax vessels can replace about 2.3 three Large Capes from the market, all other things being equal" it mentioned.
In a separate note, Commodore Research & Consultancy noted that the latest Tropical Storm Doksuri, was expected to make landfall near Hong Kong and should bring even more torrential rainfall in southern China. “Southern China (which is where the majority of China's hydropower is produced) has recently received a very large amount of rain. Last week, the vast majority of southern China received at least 85 millimeters of rain, with some areas receiving as much as of 150mm. This was an extremely large amount. In comparison, all of China received an average rainfall of 68.5mm of rain in May. Chinese hydropower production is poised to continue to rise, which will put added pressure on Chinese thermal coal demand. Chinese demand for imported thermal coal cargoes has remained low and is poised to stay low for the next several weeks. Chinese hydropower production totaled 66.5 billion kilowatt hours in May, which was 22.7 billion kwh (52%) more than produced in April and 15.1 billion kwh (29%) more than produced in May 2011. For June, we expect hydropower production will end up totaling between 70 to 80 billion kwh. In July, hydropower production stands a good chance of setting a new record. The current record is 82.7 billion kwh produced in July 2010.
Going forward, Chinese thermal coal demand is poised to stay low in the near term due to the ongoing surge in Chinese hydropower production (and also due to the robust amount of coal that remains stocked at Chinese ports and power plants)” concluded Commodore Research & Consultancy.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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