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BRAZIL INVEST 2012
21 - 23 May 2012
Hong Kong
Beacon Events
CIS COAL
22 - 24 May 2012
Moscow Russia
Informa Australia
COALTRANS MONGOLIA
23 - 24 May 2012
Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Coaltrans Conferences
THE 4TH ANNUAL DEEPWATER ASIA CONGRESS 2012
23 - 25 May 2012
Bali, Indonesia
SZ&W Group, China
COAL PROCESSING OPTIMISATION AFRICA 2012
28 - 30 May 2012
Johannesburg, South Africa
IQPC South Africa
ARGUS AUSTRALIA POWER GENERATION FUELS 2012
30 May 2012
Sydney, Australia
Argus Media
AMERICAS COAL CONFERENCE
3 - 5 June, 2012
Florida, USA
Ibarra Garrido Investments
COALTRANS ASIA
3 - 6 June 2012
Bali, Indonesia
Coaltrans Conferences
WORLD CLEAN COAL WEEK - INDIA FOCUS
June 13-15, 2012
Delhi
SZW Group
EURO COAL
20 - 21 June 2012
Berlin, Germany
Informa Australia
MINES AND MONEY - BEIJING
19-21 June 2012
Beijing. China
Beacon Events
GUNNEDAH COAL AND ENERGY
25-26 June 2012
Newcastle, Australia
Informa Australia
5TH ANNUAL CBM & UNCONVENTIONAL GAS
26 – 29 June 2012
Bali, Indonesia
IBC Asia
3RD MOZAMBIQUE COAL CONFERENCE
2 - 4 July 2012
Joaquim Chissano International Conference Centre, ...
Informa Australia
COAL MARKET IN INDIA – 2012
10 July 2012
Hotel The Imperial, Janpath, New Delhi
IBK Media, India
COLOMBIAN MINING CONFERENCE 2012
July 17 - 19, 2012
Irotama Resort Golf Marinal
Ibarra Garrido
MYANMAR MINING & MINERALS
23-24 July 2012
Myanmar
Centre for Management
KALIMANTAN COAL
4 - 5 September 2012
Balikpapan, Indonesia
Informa Australia
UNCONVENTIONAL OIL & GAS 2012
12 -15 September 2012
Zhengzhou, China
Global Industry Connects - China
APCIO 2012
19 - 21 September 2012
China
CBI China
COAL TRADING 2012
25-27 September 2012
Singapore
Coaltrans Conferences
WORLD CLEAN COAL WEEK - CHINA FOCUS
November 5-8, 2012
Beijing
SZ&W Group
U GAS 2012
5-8 November 2012
Bejing
SZ&W Group
Friday, 10 February 12
TONNAGE KEEPS ON COMING - DREWRY
Drewry Maritime Research’s latest edition of its Dry Bulk Forecaster pulls no punches in its assessment of a market that looks certain to continue hitting dry bulk shipowners hard.
Tonnage supply hit a massive 605 million dwt at the end of 2011, an increase of 15.2%, which is even more impressive considering 19 million dwt was removed in the same period. With rates suffering under current market conditions Drewry’s forecast for the fleet hitting 684 million dwt by the end of 2012 and 765 million dwt by the end of 2016 signals daunting prospects for the future.
The near future will play heavily on supply-side fundamentals, as ships continue to hit the water at a very fast pace. Given the colossal delivery schedule and slippage from previous years, deliveries in 2012 are forecast to increase further to 97.6 million dwt. The largest increase in deliveries is foreseen in the VLOC segment, where a total of 16.5 million dwt of tonnage will hit the water compared with only 8.9 million dwt in 2011. In light of China’s recent ban on such vessels, this could mean further headaches for owners.
Demolition in this over-supplied market totalled 19.1 mdwt in 2011, nearly quadruple that of the preceding year, as the ailing hire market forced owners to retire older ships. 2012 levels are forecast to reach almost the same as 2011 due to the declining average demolition age of vessels. However the Capesize segment is set to see a decline in demolition levels as most of the obsolete vessels were already demolished in 2011. In the longer forecast period all demolitions are expected to decline, to total 10.6 mdwt in 2016.
Shalini Shekhawat, a dry bulk analyst at Drewry stated, “It’s not all bad news for the sector as Drewry forecasts a 4% growth in trade for 2012, increasing yearly to a rate of 5.8% come 2016, which considering growth stood at less than 1% in 2011 is a boost for the market . Coupled with an orderbook that has been shrinking since February 2009, when it sat at 295 million dwt, there are glimmers of hope that the serious issue of over supply can start to be addressed.”
Source: Drewry
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