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Wednesday, 19 October 11
METALLURGICAL COAL PRICES TO DROP BELOW US$240/TONNE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Metallurgical Coal Prices to Drop Below US$240/tonne by Q4 2012 But Long-term Demand Fundamentals Remain Robust
Wood Mackenzie’s Near-Term Market Outlook cautions of falling metallurgical coal prices from now to Q4 2012, dropping from the current quarterly price of US$285/tonne for premium hard coking coal to under US$240/tonne. However, this price remains significantly above the marginal cost of production and longer-term drivers point to robust metallurgical coal demand in the Asia-Pacific market.
Prakash Sharma, Coal Market Analyst says, “Prices have started to fall from the last quarter and will continue to decline due to softening demand and the recovery of supply from flood-hit basins earlier in the year. The weakening demand is largely attributed to the global macroeconomic slowdown which appears to have accelerated through the summer in much of the developed world. Leading industrial indicators suggest a sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity – reflected by the decline in global steel production.”
Wood Mackenzie’s Senior Economist, Ed Rawle says, “The global economy has entered a period of extreme uncertainty. Wood Mackenzie’s global Gross Domestic Product growth forecast has been revised down from 3.1% to 2.8% in 2011, and 3.7% to 3.6% in 2012. But there are significant downside risks to this outlook. The Eurozone debt crisis remains unresolved and threatens to trigger a European banking crisis. Due to the sheer scale of the European banking sector, this is of major concern since it would likely lead to a global banking crisis with implications for us all.”
Despite near-term downward price movements, Wood Mackenzie says that several factors have the potential to turn this trend. Firstly, some mines have not fully recovered from the 2011 Queensland floods. The approaching wet season could lead to further delays in some mines attaining full production levels. Secondly, persistent worker-strikes at BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance operated mines have the ability to tighten the market as these operations produce 26% of globally traded metallurgical coal. Lastly, US low-volatility supply has been curtailed by mine outages and changes in blending techniques following various mergers.
In the long-term , investors are still energized by the coking coal space with high margins in a current supply-constrained world. Mr. Sharma explains, ”Strong long-term demand is likely to support Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) activity that has been ongoing since early 2008. Demand growth will be led by emerging markets with Asia accounting for 75% of global metallurgical coal demand by 2030. China and India will be key demand drivers, contributing to 60% of Asia Pacific’s total import demand.”
The growth potential of China and India can be attributed to their economic climate relative to the rest of the world. Mr. Rawle says, “The bright spot amidst the uncertainty continues to be the developing world. Specifically, we see China and much of Asia powering ahead, drawing on growth drivers that have been deliberately de-coupled from troubled developed economies over the past couple of years.”
Wood Mackenzie says that China’s reliance on coking coal imports will increase due to insufficient supply of high quality coking coal in the domestic market. China is forging ahead with plans to close all blast furnaces under 1,000 cubic metres and install new blast furnaces with capacities in excess of 2,000 cubic metres. The larger furnaces need coke produced from high-quality coking coal. As a result, a larger volume of this type of coal will be required and China will have to turn to suppliers of the likes of Australia, Mongolia and, to a lesser extent, Mozambique who are all expanding supply.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, ”The industry should expect premium metallurgical coal prices to fall to a price below US$240/tonne from now until Q4 2012. Although further downside price risks remain given ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and new sources of supply entering the market place, the constant threat of additional unpredictable mine outages and the upcoming rainy season in key supply basins should keep them from falling too far. Long-term demand also remains strong in emerging markets.”
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com. Wood Mackenzie is a research consulting company and it is our preference is to be referred to as research consultants.
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Tuesday, 18 August 20
BLACKBALLED: WILL COAL BOUNCE BACK FROM SLUMP OR IS IT TERMINAL? - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Even by the standards of this miserable year, 2020 has been a shocker for the global coal industry.
As the lockdown kicked in demand ...
Friday, 14 August 20
EIA: COAL PLANTS UNECONOMICAL IN MOST REGIONS - IEEFA
U.S. coal power generation plunged by 30 percent in the first half of 2020 off an already-depressed base, shoved out by natural gas and renewables ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDIA SHOULD RECORD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS, REACHING A VOLUME OF 167 MILLION TONS BY THE END OF 2020 - ASSOCARBONI
Regarding 2020 thermal coal imports forecasts, Vietnam’s coal imports showed a very strong growth in the first half of 2020 and it is believe ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDONESIA REMAINS THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COAL IN THE WORLD - ASSOCARBONI
According to the last Assocarboni data for 2019, Indonesia remains the largest exporter in the world. Thermal coal exports have in fact reached 456 ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
VIETNAM WAS THE PROTAGONIST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 - ASSOCARBONI
The latest Assocarboni data for 2019 also provide a detailed picture on the trend of the global coal import.
According to Assocarbon ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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