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Thursday, 04 March 10
GLOBAL COAL PRICES GETS SUPPORT FROM EM DEMAND
 Commodity Online reported that, AP12 coal prices look well supported in 2010 thanks to positive outlook for Chinese coal demand whereas coal demand in Europe, rest of the world is shockingly low and stocks have hardly drawn despite the coldest winter in decades, according to an analysis by Bank of America- Merrill Lynch (BofAML).
Japan, by far the biggest importer of thermal coal, cut back on its appetite for coal by almost 20 million mt last year, to 117million mt. Europe took in 22 million metric tons less last year, driven particularly by Spain, Italy, the UK and France as low natural gas prices supported switching out of coal in the power sector
Last year China imported 70.4 mn mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mn in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal proudction, according to BofAML.
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“Last year China imported 70.4 mln mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mln in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal production” - BofAML
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Coal prices are protected to the downside by the high marginal cost of production, particularly in Russia. However, the oversupply in Europe will likely keep a lid on API2 prices near-term.
API2 front month coal increased from a low of $75/mt in mid December to $97/mt in early January, sharply outpacing other energy markets. Heavy snowstorms led to local power shortages, particularly in the South of the country.
Perhaps more importantly, a much stronger-than-expected cyclical rebound in China drove power generation growth to new highs, up 33% YoY over the past three months, helping to fuel coal demand. Other Asian countries also experienced a turn-around in electricity generation. In turn, due to the heavy snowfall and rail constraints, China resorted to seaborne coal as opposed to domestically produced material. Elsewhere, a glaringly cold winter in Europe provided some support to sentiment. Producer infrastructure constraints, particularly in Australia, South Africa and Indonesia, temporarily tightened the international coal market.
Ultimately, the 3-week rally in coal did not last and prices reversed sharply in mid January as the snowfalls in China receded and the USD strengthened. In recent weeks, front-month API2 coal traded down to $72.75/mt and has been in the $72/mt to $79/mt range. Chinese imports in January, though still at a very high level, cooled off month-on-month basis. Moreover, big European coal users, like Germany, France and the UK, recorded steep demand losses in January, at a time that they experienced the sharpest winter in decade, BofAML analysis said.
In the UK for instance, coal demand in December equalled 4.6 million mt, down from 6.3 million mt in the prior year. Preliminary data indicates that the trend continued over the past weeks.
Traditional European coal suppliers are doing what they can to manage supply to Europe. Russia has reportedly closed some mines to keep exports to Europe low. South Africa is actively diversifying away from Europe towards demand outlets in Asia Pacific. During 2009, 31% of South African exports went to India, from virtually nothing in previous years. That trend was particularly pronounced over the past months. Although in small volumes, South Africa has also been pushing material into China. More absurdly, Colombia-- who typically exports 50-60% of their coal to Europe with the balance going to the Americas--
has now detected interest in Asia.
Colombia exported small volumes to China in December to the tune of 1.5-1.7 million mt, for the first time ever. Of course, sharply lower freight rates are helping these trade flows. As we see continued supply of new Capesize vessels in 2010, freight will likely remain cheap by historical standards in the near-term. Once freight recovers, possibly at the end of this year with the cyclical demand recovery soaking up the supply in ships, these trade-flows are unlikely to be sustainable.
Europe's coal inventories remain at excessive levels at key import ports in Rotterdam and Amsterdam as supply exceeds demand. BofAML sses strong relationship between spreads in AP12 and coal inventories. Hence it is no surprise that the contango in API2 has steepened even more, with front month to front calendar year spreads at the widest since July last year , reflecting the oversupply in the European market and bulging inventories.
Coal markets in the Pacific are a lot tighter, with inventories relatively low in key coal consumers like China, India and South Korea. Meanwhile, the Newcastle coal market is trading in backwardation. Several coal mines in Australia had to declare force majeure in response to severe rainfalls on the east coast which flooded mines, while major rail lines had to close, clogging up the coal chain infrastructure. 47 vessels are currently again lining up outside Newcastle , underscoring that infrastructure problems will not go away easily, BofAML analysis said.
Overall, the outlook for emerging market coal demand remains very positive though. China is expected buy more seaborne coal as as the Chinese Renminbi is likely to be revalued by mid year. In BofAMl analysis, a CNY revaluation is undoubtedly positive for global thermal coal prices. Other EMs likeMexico and Turkey are sharply ramping up coal imports. India continues to suffer from a negative coal balance and will have to rely on the seaborne market for supplies. On a medium-term horizon, we believe that global seaborne coal prices have immense upside from the current level given the growth in coal-fired generation capacity.
Source:Commodity Online - By Madhurima R S
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Tuesday, 23 February 10
UAE COMPANY TO ACQUIRE CONTROL OF ALLBOND MAKMUR
The Jakarta globe reported that, Renuka Energy Resources Holding, based in the United Arab Emirates, has signed an agreement to acquire 80 percent o ...
Tuesday, 23 February 10
CIL SHORTLISTS 24 FOREIGN COS FOR JV
India's Economic Times reported that, Coal India has shortlisted 24 foreign firms — six each from the US, Australia, South Africa and Indones ...
Saturday, 20 February 10
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO BE SOFT THIS WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be soft this week as still affect of Chinese new year holidays continue. However the index overall had ...
Friday, 19 February 10
MAKING THE JOINT COOPERATION OF PRIVATE GOVERNMENT IN INDONESIA
COALspot.com - Press Release
1. Revision of the presidential decree 67/2005 has been signed by the President on January 28, 2010 with the public ...
Thursday, 18 February 10
THE INDIAN MARKET IS FIRMING A BIT, DUE TO LACK OF TONNAGE IN THE REGION
HANDY
The BSI still decline as holidays around the world have reduced trading.
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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