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Thursday, 04 March 10
GLOBAL COAL PRICES GETS SUPPORT FROM EM DEMAND
 Commodity Online reported that, AP12 coal prices look well supported in 2010 thanks to positive outlook for Chinese coal demand whereas coal demand in Europe, rest of the world is shockingly low and stocks have hardly drawn despite the coldest winter in decades, according to an analysis by Bank of America- Merrill Lynch (BofAML).
Japan, by far the biggest importer of thermal coal, cut back on its appetite for coal by almost 20 million mt last year, to 117million mt. Europe took in 22 million metric tons less last year, driven particularly by Spain, Italy, the UK and France as low natural gas prices supported switching out of coal in the power sector
Last year China imported 70.4 mn mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mn in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal proudction, according to BofAML.
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“Last year China imported 70.4 mln mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mln in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal production” - BofAML
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Coal prices are protected to the downside by the high marginal cost of production, particularly in Russia. However, the oversupply in Europe will likely keep a lid on API2 prices near-term.
API2 front month coal increased from a low of $75/mt in mid December to $97/mt in early January, sharply outpacing other energy markets. Heavy snowstorms led to local power shortages, particularly in the South of the country.
Perhaps more importantly, a much stronger-than-expected cyclical rebound in China drove power generation growth to new highs, up 33% YoY over the past three months, helping to fuel coal demand. Other Asian countries also experienced a turn-around in electricity generation. In turn, due to the heavy snowfall and rail constraints, China resorted to seaborne coal as opposed to domestically produced material. Elsewhere, a glaringly cold winter in Europe provided some support to sentiment. Producer infrastructure constraints, particularly in Australia, South Africa and Indonesia, temporarily tightened the international coal market.
Ultimately, the 3-week rally in coal did not last and prices reversed sharply in mid January as the snowfalls in China receded and the USD strengthened. In recent weeks, front-month API2 coal traded down to $72.75/mt and has been in the $72/mt to $79/mt range. Chinese imports in January, though still at a very high level, cooled off month-on-month basis. Moreover, big European coal users, like Germany, France and the UK, recorded steep demand losses in January, at a time that they experienced the sharpest winter in decade, BofAML analysis said.
In the UK for instance, coal demand in December equalled 4.6 million mt, down from 6.3 million mt in the prior year. Preliminary data indicates that the trend continued over the past weeks.
Traditional European coal suppliers are doing what they can to manage supply to Europe. Russia has reportedly closed some mines to keep exports to Europe low. South Africa is actively diversifying away from Europe towards demand outlets in Asia Pacific. During 2009, 31% of South African exports went to India, from virtually nothing in previous years. That trend was particularly pronounced over the past months. Although in small volumes, South Africa has also been pushing material into China. More absurdly, Colombia-- who typically exports 50-60% of their coal to Europe with the balance going to the Americas--
has now detected interest in Asia.
Colombia exported small volumes to China in December to the tune of 1.5-1.7 million mt, for the first time ever. Of course, sharply lower freight rates are helping these trade flows. As we see continued supply of new Capesize vessels in 2010, freight will likely remain cheap by historical standards in the near-term. Once freight recovers, possibly at the end of this year with the cyclical demand recovery soaking up the supply in ships, these trade-flows are unlikely to be sustainable.
Europe's coal inventories remain at excessive levels at key import ports in Rotterdam and Amsterdam as supply exceeds demand. BofAML sses strong relationship between spreads in AP12 and coal inventories. Hence it is no surprise that the contango in API2 has steepened even more, with front month to front calendar year spreads at the widest since July last year , reflecting the oversupply in the European market and bulging inventories.
Coal markets in the Pacific are a lot tighter, with inventories relatively low in key coal consumers like China, India and South Korea. Meanwhile, the Newcastle coal market is trading in backwardation. Several coal mines in Australia had to declare force majeure in response to severe rainfalls on the east coast which flooded mines, while major rail lines had to close, clogging up the coal chain infrastructure. 47 vessels are currently again lining up outside Newcastle , underscoring that infrastructure problems will not go away easily, BofAML analysis said.
Overall, the outlook for emerging market coal demand remains very positive though. China is expected buy more seaborne coal as as the Chinese Renminbi is likely to be revalued by mid year. In BofAMl analysis, a CNY revaluation is undoubtedly positive for global thermal coal prices. Other EMs likeMexico and Turkey are sharply ramping up coal imports. India continues to suffer from a negative coal balance and will have to rely on the seaborne market for supplies. On a medium-term horizon, we believe that global seaborne coal prices have immense upside from the current level given the growth in coal-fired generation capacity.
Source:Commodity Online - By Madhurima R S
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Friday, 26 February 10
BANPU PROFITS SURGE BY 54% TO RECORD B14BN ON BRISK SALES
Banpu Plc, Asean's largest coal miner, said its earnings surged to a record high of 14.23 billion baht last year, an increase of 54% on the previou ...
Thursday, 25 February 10
INDO / INDIA COAL TRIPS SUPRAS CAN ACHIEVE AROUND MID 10S - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The BSI regained positive momentum exactly a week ago and the Atlantic rema ...
Thursday, 25 February 10
STEEP RISE IN COAL IMPORTS REQUIRED TO POWER INDIA - MONEYLIFE
The power ministry has estimated coal imports of 48 million tonnes in FY10-11, sharply higher than the expected imports of 28mt in the current fisca ...
Wednesday, 24 February 10
CHINA IMPORTED 8.81 MLN TONS OF INDONESIAN COAL IN JANUARY 2010
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, exported 24.38 million tons of coal last month, compared with 27.46 million tons in a ...
Tuesday, 23 February 10
TRENDS..... DRY BULK MARKET .... TRENDS
The dry bulk market was pulled along by the Capes this week, as fresh enquiry breathed temporary life back into the market. Short period rates also ...
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Showing 5971 to 5975 news of total 6871 |
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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