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Thursday, 04 March 10
GLOBAL COAL PRICES GETS SUPPORT FROM EM DEMAND
 Commodity Online reported that, AP12 coal prices look well supported in 2010 thanks to positive outlook for Chinese coal demand whereas coal demand in Europe, rest of the world is shockingly low and stocks have hardly drawn despite the coldest winter in decades, according to an analysis by Bank of America- Merrill Lynch (BofAML).
Japan, by far the biggest importer of thermal coal, cut back on its appetite for coal by almost 20 million mt last year, to 117million mt. Europe took in 22 million metric tons less last year, driven particularly by Spain, Italy, the UK and France as low natural gas prices supported switching out of coal in the power sector
Last year China imported 70.4 mn mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mn in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal proudction, according to BofAML.
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“Last year China imported 70.4 mln mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mln in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal production” - BofAML
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Coal prices are protected to the downside by the high marginal cost of production, particularly in Russia. However, the oversupply in Europe will likely keep a lid on API2 prices near-term.
API2 front month coal increased from a low of $75/mt in mid December to $97/mt in early January, sharply outpacing other energy markets. Heavy snowstorms led to local power shortages, particularly in the South of the country.
Perhaps more importantly, a much stronger-than-expected cyclical rebound in China drove power generation growth to new highs, up 33% YoY over the past three months, helping to fuel coal demand. Other Asian countries also experienced a turn-around in electricity generation. In turn, due to the heavy snowfall and rail constraints, China resorted to seaborne coal as opposed to domestically produced material. Elsewhere, a glaringly cold winter in Europe provided some support to sentiment. Producer infrastructure constraints, particularly in Australia, South Africa and Indonesia, temporarily tightened the international coal market.
Ultimately, the 3-week rally in coal did not last and prices reversed sharply in mid January as the snowfalls in China receded and the USD strengthened. In recent weeks, front-month API2 coal traded down to $72.75/mt and has been in the $72/mt to $79/mt range. Chinese imports in January, though still at a very high level, cooled off month-on-month basis. Moreover, big European coal users, like Germany, France and the UK, recorded steep demand losses in January, at a time that they experienced the sharpest winter in decade, BofAML analysis said.
In the UK for instance, coal demand in December equalled 4.6 million mt, down from 6.3 million mt in the prior year. Preliminary data indicates that the trend continued over the past weeks.
Traditional European coal suppliers are doing what they can to manage supply to Europe. Russia has reportedly closed some mines to keep exports to Europe low. South Africa is actively diversifying away from Europe towards demand outlets in Asia Pacific. During 2009, 31% of South African exports went to India, from virtually nothing in previous years. That trend was particularly pronounced over the past months. Although in small volumes, South Africa has also been pushing material into China. More absurdly, Colombia-- who typically exports 50-60% of their coal to Europe with the balance going to the Americas--
has now detected interest in Asia.
Colombia exported small volumes to China in December to the tune of 1.5-1.7 million mt, for the first time ever. Of course, sharply lower freight rates are helping these trade flows. As we see continued supply of new Capesize vessels in 2010, freight will likely remain cheap by historical standards in the near-term. Once freight recovers, possibly at the end of this year with the cyclical demand recovery soaking up the supply in ships, these trade-flows are unlikely to be sustainable.
Europe's coal inventories remain at excessive levels at key import ports in Rotterdam and Amsterdam as supply exceeds demand. BofAML sses strong relationship between spreads in AP12 and coal inventories. Hence it is no surprise that the contango in API2 has steepened even more, with front month to front calendar year spreads at the widest since July last year , reflecting the oversupply in the European market and bulging inventories.
Coal markets in the Pacific are a lot tighter, with inventories relatively low in key coal consumers like China, India and South Korea. Meanwhile, the Newcastle coal market is trading in backwardation. Several coal mines in Australia had to declare force majeure in response to severe rainfalls on the east coast which flooded mines, while major rail lines had to close, clogging up the coal chain infrastructure. 47 vessels are currently again lining up outside Newcastle , underscoring that infrastructure problems will not go away easily, BofAML analysis said.
Overall, the outlook for emerging market coal demand remains very positive though. China is expected buy more seaborne coal as as the Chinese Renminbi is likely to be revalued by mid year. In BofAMl analysis, a CNY revaluation is undoubtedly positive for global thermal coal prices. Other EMs likeMexico and Turkey are sharply ramping up coal imports. India continues to suffer from a negative coal balance and will have to rely on the seaborne market for supplies. On a medium-term horizon, we believe that global seaborne coal prices have immense upside from the current level given the growth in coal-fired generation capacity.
Source:Commodity Online - By Madhurima R S
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Friday, 26 February 10
BANPU PROFITS SURGE BY 54% TO RECORD B14BN ON BRISK SALES
Banpu Plc, Asean's largest coal miner, said its earnings surged to a record high of 14.23 billion baht last year, an increase of 54% on the previou ...
Thursday, 25 February 10
INDO / INDIA COAL TRIPS SUPRAS CAN ACHIEVE AROUND MID 10S - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The BSI regained positive momentum exactly a week ago and the Atlantic rema ...
Thursday, 25 February 10
STEEP RISE IN COAL IMPORTS REQUIRED TO POWER INDIA - MONEYLIFE
The power ministry has estimated coal imports of 48 million tonnes in FY10-11, sharply higher than the expected imports of 28mt in the current fisca ...
Wednesday, 24 February 10
CHINA IMPORTED 8.81 MLN TONS OF INDONESIAN COAL IN JANUARY 2010
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, exported 24.38 million tons of coal last month, compared with 27.46 million tons in a ...
Tuesday, 23 February 10
TRENDS..... DRY BULK MARKET .... TRENDS
The dry bulk market was pulled along by the Capes this week, as fresh enquiry breathed temporary life back into the market. Short period rates also ...
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Showing 5971 to 5975 news of total 6871 |
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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